**Multiple committee advancements on targeted AI measures in 2026 have not translated into enacted comprehensive safety legislation.** Bipartisan House Science Committee markups in June advanced bills on frontier model risk reporting, NIST’s AI security center, incident disclosure, and consumer protections, yet these face further hurdles in the full House, Senate consideration, and reconciliation with administration priorities. Recent proposals, including the Obernolte-Trahan framework on catastrophic-risk transparency and audits and newer agent-security or superintelligence measures, encounter resistance over state-law preemption, regulatory scope, and timing before November midterms. With a crowded legislative agenda, leadership skepticism, and preference for lighter executive approaches, the window for passing a broad AI safety bill by year-end remains narrow, aligning with traders’ 89.5% “No” assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
$102,026 Vol.
$102,026 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$102,026 Vol.
$102,026 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Multiple committee advancements on targeted AI measures in 2026 have not translated into enacted comprehensive safety legislation.** Bipartisan House Science Committee markups in June advanced bills on frontier model risk reporting, NIST’s AI security center, incident disclosure, and consumer protections, yet these face further hurdles in the full House, Senate consideration, and reconciliation with administration priorities. Recent proposals, including the Obernolte-Trahan framework on catastrophic-risk transparency and audits and newer agent-security or superintelligence measures, encounter resistance over state-law preemption, regulatory scope, and timing before November midterms. With a crowded legislative agenda, leadership skepticism, and preference for lighter executive approaches, the window for passing a broad AI safety bill by year-end remains narrow, aligning with traders’ 89.5% “No” assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$102,026End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Multiple committee advancements on targeted AI measures in 2026 have not translated into enacted comprehensive safety legislation.** Bipartisan House Science Committee markups in June advanced bills on frontier model risk reporting, NIST’s AI security center, incident disclosure, and consumer protections, yet these face further hurdles in the full House, Senate consideration, and reconciliation with administration priorities. Recent proposals, including the Obernolte-Trahan framework on catastrophic-risk transparency and audits and newer agent-security or superintelligence measures, encounter resistance over state-law preemption, regulatory scope, and timing before November midterms. With a crowded legislative agenda, leadership skepticism, and preference for lighter executive approaches, the window for passing a broad AI safety bill by year-end remains narrow, aligning with traders’ 89.5% “No” assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$102,026End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Multiple committee advancements on targeted AI measures in 2026 have not translated into enacted comprehensive safety legislation.** Bipartisan House Science Committee markups in June advanced bills on frontier model risk reporting, NIST’s AI security center, incident disclosure, and consumer protections, yet these face further hurdles in the full House, Senate consideration, and reconciliation with administration priorities. Recent proposals, including the Obernolte-Trahan framework on catastrophic-risk transparency and audits and newer agent-security or superintelligence measures, encounter resistance over state-law preemption, regulatory scope, and timing before November midterms. With a crowded legislative agenda, leadership skepticism, and preference for lighter executive approaches, the window for passing a broad AI safety bill by year-end remains narrow, aligning with traders’ 89.5% “No” assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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