Recent model releases and benchmark performance have tightened the race for second place behind the leader in text-based math AI arenas, with Google and Anthropic holding the clearest edges at 28.5% and 25.5% implied probability. Traders see Google's Gemini iterations and Anthropic's Claude reasoning chains delivering comparable gains on math-specific tasks, while OpenAI trails at 14% amid focus on other domains. Key differentiators include specialized math pretraining data, long-context reasoning efficiency, and verifiable chain-of-thought outputs that influence arena win rates. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability demonstrations through November could shift sentiment, as small benchmark edges often determine final rankings in this tightly contested field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 29%
Anthropic 26%
Baidu 17.4%
OpenAI 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
29%
Anthropic
26%
Baidu
17%
OpenAI
14%
Z.ai
11%
Alibaba
10%
Moonshot
10%
SpaceXAI
7%
Mistral
4%
Meta
4%
ByteDance
4%
DeepSeek
4%
MiniMax
4%
Amazon
3%
Xiaomi
10%
Thinky
8%
Tencent
9%
StepFun
8%
Nvidia
8%
Meituan
8%
Microsoft
19%
Google 29%
Anthropic 26%
Baidu 17.4%
OpenAI 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
$370 Vol.
29%
Anthropic
$838 Vol.
26%
Baidu
$90 Vol.
17%
OpenAI
$236 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$71 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$84 Vol.
10%
Moonshot
$314 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$66 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$236 Vol.
4%
Meta
$65 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$64 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$288 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$66 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$373 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$88 Vol.
10%
Thinky
$96 Vol.
8%
Tencent
$65 Vol.
9%
StepFun
$84 Vol.
8%
Nvidia
$65 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$66 Vol.
8%
Microsoft
$110 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark performance have tightened the race for second place behind the leader in text-based math AI arenas, with Google and Anthropic holding the clearest edges at 28.5% and 25.5% implied probability. Traders see Google's Gemini iterations and Anthropic's Claude reasoning chains delivering comparable gains on math-specific tasks, while OpenAI trails at 14% amid focus on other domains. Key differentiators include specialized math pretraining data, long-context reasoning efficiency, and verifiable chain-of-thought outputs that influence arena win rates. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability demonstrations through November could shift sentiment, as small benchmark edges often determine final rankings in this tightly contested field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$3,732End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark performance have tightened the race for second place behind the leader in text-based math AI arenas, with Google and Anthropic holding the clearest edges at 28.5% and 25.5% implied probability. Traders see Google's Gemini iterations and Anthropic's Claude reasoning chains delivering comparable gains on math-specific tasks, while OpenAI trails at 14% amid focus on other domains. Key differentiators include specialized math pretraining data, long-context reasoning efficiency, and verifiable chain-of-thought outputs that influence arena win rates. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability demonstrations through November could shift sentiment, as small benchmark edges often determine final rankings in this tightly contested field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,732End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and benchmark performance have tightened the race for second place behind the leader in text-based math AI arenas, with Google and Anthropic holding the clearest edges at 28.5% and 25.5% implied probability. Traders see Google's Gemini iterations and Anthropic's Claude reasoning chains delivering comparable gains on math-specific tasks, while OpenAI trails at 14% amid focus on other domains. Key differentiators include specialized math pretraining data, long-context reasoning efficiency, and verifiable chain-of-thought outputs that influence arena win rates. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability demonstrations through November could shift sentiment, as small benchmark edges often determine final rankings in this tightly contested field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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