AI systems have demonstrated gold-medal or perfect 42/42 performance on the 2026 IMO problems through official grading and verified benchmarks, with models like Huawei’s Celia, Xiaohongshu’s dots-note-3.0, and several frontier large language models reaching or exceeding the 29-point gold threshold after the July event in Shanghai. Trader consensus heavily favors “No” because the market requires an AI to officially participate and receive a medal within the human competition under IMO rules, which has not occurred. Open-weight models also hit gold-level scores with low inference costs, underscoring rapid progress in mathematical reasoning, yet regulatory, eligibility, and format barriers prevent formal entry. A last-minute rule change allowing AI contestants remains the primary low-probability path that could shift outcomes before resolution.