Recent benchmarks position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 as the leading large language model, topping independent leaderboards with the highest composite scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of September 22. Its September 1 release and sustained edge over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra have driven the 43% market-implied odds on claude-fable-5.1-max. The same-day launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance at roughly 40% lower inference cost, adds uncertainty about which variant traders will view as strongest by October 5. With no major releases scheduled in the next two weeks, the 53% probability on Other reflects the slim chance a competitor closes the gap or a surprise update shifts the consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 54%
claude-fable-5.1-max 34%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-5-max 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Other
54%
claude-fable-5.1-max
40%
claude-opus-5-high
8%
claude-opus-5-max
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
8%
Other 54%
claude-fable-5.1-max 34%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-5-max 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Other
$106 Vol.
54%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$118 Vol.
40%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
8%
claude-opus-5-max
$32 Vol.
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$30 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmarks position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 as the leading large language model, topping independent leaderboards with the highest composite scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of September 22. Its September 1 release and sustained edge over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra have driven the 43% market-implied odds on claude-fable-5.1-max. The same-day launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance at roughly 40% lower inference cost, adds uncertainty about which variant traders will view as strongest by October 5. With no major releases scheduled in the next two weeks, the 53% probability on Other reflects the slim chance a competitor closes the gap or a surprise update shifts the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volume
$285End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmarks position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 as the leading large language model, topping independent leaderboards with the highest composite scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of September 22. Its September 1 release and sustained edge over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra have driven the 43% market-implied odds on claude-fable-5.1-max. The same-day launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance at roughly 40% lower inference cost, adds uncertainty about which variant traders will view as strongest by October 5. With no major releases scheduled in the next two weeks, the 53% probability on Other reflects the slim chance a competitor closes the gap or a surprise update shifts the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$285End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmarks position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 as the leading large language model, topping independent leaderboards with the highest composite scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of September 22. Its September 1 release and sustained edge over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra have driven the 43% market-implied odds on claude-fable-5.1-max. The same-day launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance at roughly 40% lower inference cost, adds uncertainty about which variant traders will view as strongest by October 5. With no major releases scheduled in the next two weeks, the 53% probability on Other reflects the slim chance a competitor closes the gap or a surprise update shifts the consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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