Recent breakthroughs on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath: Open Problems benchmark have accelerated trader sentiment toward near-term resolutions. GPT-6 Astra and OpenAI’s internal models have delivered verified solutions to multiple open research problems in September 2026, including a “major progress” level conjecture unsolved since 2017 and key aspects of the Navier–Stokes equations. These results follow earlier 2026 milestones such as the 2-adic Galois group and hypergraph problems, with independent Lean formalizations and mathematician validation confirming the advances. OpenAI’s rapid iteration—training a new model in late August that cleared over 100 high-level problems—has outpaced competitors like Anthropic’s Claude Fable series on Tier 4 challenges. With Epoch AI actively updating solved statuses and frontier labs racing to demonstrate further capability gains before year-end, market-implied odds reflect strong expectations of at least one additional official classification by late September or December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Oct 15, 2026
October 15
55%
October 31
70%
$80 Vol.
October 15
$0 Vol.
55%
October 31
$80 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.Recent breakthroughs on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath: Open Problems benchmark have accelerated trader sentiment toward near-term resolutions. GPT-6 Astra and OpenAI’s internal models have delivered verified solutions to multiple open research problems in September 2026, including a “major progress” level conjecture unsolved since 2017 and key aspects of the Navier–Stokes equations. These results follow earlier 2026 milestones such as the 2-adic Galois group and hypergraph problems, with independent Lean formalizations and mathematician validation confirming the advances. OpenAI’s rapid iteration—training a new model in late August that cleared over 100 high-level problems—has outpaced competitors like Anthropic’s Claude Fable series on Tier 4 challenges. With Epoch AI actively updating solved statuses and frontier labs racing to demonstrate further capability gains before year-end, market-implied odds reflect strong expectations of at least one additional official classification by late September or December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$80End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.Recent breakthroughs on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath: Open Problems benchmark have accelerated trader sentiment toward near-term resolutions. GPT-6 Astra and OpenAI’s internal models have delivered verified solutions to multiple open research problems in September 2026, including a “major progress” level conjecture unsolved since 2017 and key aspects of the Navier–Stokes equations. These results follow earlier 2026 milestones such as the 2-adic Galois group and hypergraph problems, with independent Lean formalizations and mathematician validation confirming the advances. OpenAI’s rapid iteration—training a new model in late August that cleared over 100 high-level problems—has outpaced competitors like Anthropic’s Claude Fable series on Tier 4 challenges. With Epoch AI actively updating solved statuses and frontier labs racing to demonstrate further capability gains before year-end, market-implied odds reflect strong expectations of at least one additional official classification by late September or December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Volume
$80End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent breakthroughs on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath: Open Problems benchmark have accelerated trader sentiment toward near-term resolutions. GPT-6 Astra and OpenAI’s internal models have delivered verified solutions to multiple open research problems in September 2026, including a “major progress” level conjecture unsolved since 2017 and key aspects of the Navier–Stokes equations. These results follow earlier 2026 milestones such as the 2-adic Galois group and hypergraph problems, with independent Lean formalizations and mathematician validation confirming the advances. OpenAI’s rapid iteration—training a new model in late August that cleared over 100 high-level problems—has outpaced competitors like Anthropic’s Claude Fable series on Tier 4 challenges. With Epoch AI actively updating solved statuses and frontier labs racing to demonstrate further capability gains before year-end, market-implied odds reflect strong expectations of at least one additional official classification by late September or December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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