**OpenAI Codex usage-limit resets—global clears or banked credits announced by the team, often tied to model launches or service fixes—drive the market.** The week of September 21 has already seen a banked reset on September 22 accompanying the GPT-6 Sol and Luna launch, which improved capabilities across the board and included a permanent API price cut. This fits the established pattern of resets clustering around major releases, such as the earlier Astra rollout and quality-issue compensations. Historical cadence shows resets roughly every 3–7 days on average, with frequent banked or full resets for Plus/Pro/Business users. As of September 23, one confirmed event has occurred in the window, supporting the market’s leading 3-outcome (56%) while leaving room for additional announcements if new issues arise or further model updates land. Lower probabilities for 0 or 2 reflect the low likelihood of a quiet week given ongoing development activity and the team’s history of using resets to address user limits after launches. Traders weigh these near-term catalysts against the personal rolling 5-hour/weekly windows that are not publicly announced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0 25%
1 23%
4+ 22.6%
2 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
0
21%
1
26%
2
13%
3
56%
4+
23%
0 25%
1 23%
4+ 22.6%
2 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
0
$40 Vol.
21%
1
$40 Vol.
26%
2
$80 Vol.
13%
3
$40 Vol.
56%
4+
$128 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI Codex usage-limit resets—global clears or banked credits announced by the team, often tied to model launches or service fixes—drive the market.** The week of September 21 has already seen a banked reset on September 22 accompanying the GPT-6 Sol and Luna launch, which improved capabilities across the board and included a permanent API price cut. This fits the established pattern of resets clustering around major releases, such as the earlier Astra rollout and quality-issue compensations.
Historical cadence shows resets roughly every 3–7 days on average, with frequent banked or full resets for Plus/Pro/Business users. As of September 23, one confirmed event has occurred in the window, supporting the market’s leading 3-outcome (56%) while leaving room for additional announcements if new issues arise or further model updates land. Lower probabilities for 0 or 2 reflect the low likelihood of a quiet week given ongoing development activity and the team’s history of using resets to address user limits after launches. Traders weigh these near-term catalysts against the personal rolling 5-hour/weekly windows that are not publicly announced.
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$329End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI Codex usage-limit resets—global clears or banked credits announced by the team, often tied to model launches or service fixes—drive the market.** The week of September 21 has already seen a banked reset on September 22 accompanying the GPT-6 Sol and Luna launch, which improved capabilities across the board and included a permanent API price cut. This fits the established pattern of resets clustering around major releases, such as the earlier Astra rollout and quality-issue compensations.
Historical cadence shows resets roughly every 3–7 days on average, with frequent banked or full resets for Plus/Pro/Business users. As of September 23, one confirmed event has occurred in the window, supporting the market’s leading 3-outcome (56%) while leaving room for additional announcements if new issues arise or further model updates land. Lower probabilities for 0 or 2 reflect the low likelihood of a quiet week given ongoing development activity and the team’s history of using resets to address user limits after launches. Traders weigh these near-term catalysts against the personal rolling 5-hour/weekly windows that are not publicly announced.
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$329End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**OpenAI Codex usage-limit resets—global clears or banked credits announced by the team, often tied to model launches or service fixes—drive the market.** The week of September 21 has already seen a banked reset on September 22 accompanying the GPT-6 Sol and Luna launch, which improved capabilities across the board and included a permanent API price cut. This fits the established pattern of resets clustering around major releases, such as the earlier Astra rollout and quality-issue compensations. Historical cadence shows resets roughly every 3–7 days on average, with frequent banked or full resets for Plus/Pro/Business users. As of September 23, one confirmed event has occurred in the window, supporting the market’s leading 3-outcome (56%) while leaving room for additional announcements if new issues arise or further model updates land. Lower probabilities for 0 or 2 reflect the low likelihood of a quiet week given ongoing development activity and the team’s history of using resets to address user limits after launches. Traders weigh these near-term catalysts against the personal rolling 5-hour/weekly windows that are not publicly announced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions