Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOctober 14 26%
October 25 25%
October 28 25%
October 6 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
15%
October 2
13%
October 3
24%
October 4
12%
October 5
13%
October 6
25%
October 7
25%
October 8
25%
October 9
13%
October 10
13%
October 11
24%
October 12
24%
October 13
14%
October 14
26%
October 15
19%
October 16
13%
October 17
8%
October 18
8%
October 19
24%
October 20
8%
October 21
24%
October 22
14%
October 23
13%
October 24
14%
October 25
25%
October 26
24%
October 27
13%
October 28
25%
October 29
23%
October 30
14%
October 31
14%
No release by October 31
8%
October 14 26%
October 25 25%
October 28 25%
October 6 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$24 Vol.
15%
October 2
$24 Vol.
13%
October 3
$24 Vol.
24%
October 4
$24 Vol.
12%
October 5
$24 Vol.
13%
October 6
$24 Vol.
25%
October 7
$24 Vol.
25%
October 8
$24 Vol.
25%
October 9
$29 Vol.
13%
October 10
$24 Vol.
13%
October 11
$24 Vol.
24%
October 12
$24 Vol.
24%
October 13
$24 Vol.
14%
October 14
$24 Vol.
26%
October 15
$24 Vol.
19%
October 16
$24 Vol.
13%
October 17
$24 Vol.
8%
October 18
$24 Vol.
8%
October 19
$24 Vol.
24%
October 20
$24 Vol.
8%
October 21
$24 Vol.
24%
October 22
$24 Vol.
14%
October 23
$24 Vol.
13%
October 24
$24 Vol.
14%
October 25
$24 Vol.
25%
October 26
$24 Vol.
24%
October 27
$24 Vol.
13%
October 28
$24 Vol.
25%
October 29
$24 Vol.
23%
October 30
$24 Vol.
14%
October 31
$32 Vol.
14%
No release by October 31
$24 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$787End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$787End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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