**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 47%
Meituan 46%
StepFun 43%
SpaceXAI 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Alibaba
47%
Meituan
46%
StepFun
43%
SpaceXAI
26%
Z.ai
25%
DeepSeek
25%
Nvidia
25%
Anthropic
22%
21%
Thinky
20%
MiniMax
18%
Meta
16%
Baidu
16%
Moonshot
15%
Microsoft
15%
ByteDance
14%
Mistral
12%
Tencent
11%
Xiaomi
11%
OpenAI
9%
Amazon
9%
Alibaba 47%
Meituan 46%
StepFun 43%
SpaceXAI 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Alibaba
$37 Vol.
47%
Meituan
$37 Vol.
46%
StepFun
$37 Vol.
43%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
26%
Z.ai
$37 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$37 Vol.
25%
Nvidia
$37 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$37 Vol.
22%
$37 Vol.
21%
Thinky
$37 Vol.
20%
MiniMax
$37 Vol.
18%
Meta
$37 Vol.
16%
Baidu
$37 Vol.
16%
Moonshot
$37 Vol.
15%
Microsoft
$37 Vol.
15%
ByteDance
$46 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$37 Vol.
12%
Tencent
$37 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$37 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$37 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$37 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volume
$793End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$793End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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