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icon for Which party will win older women in the midterms?
Politics·Polling

Which party will win older women in the midterms?

icon for Which party will win older women in the midterms?
Politics·Polling

Which party will win older women in the midterms?

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW
icon for Democrats

Democrats

$0 Vol.

47%

icon for Republicans

Republicans

$0 Vol.

47%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent polling from Pew and other surveys shows older women voters split nearly evenly between Democratic and Republican congressional candidates, with margins often within a few points as economic pressures and concerns over Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare costs remain top issues. This balance aligns with trader consensus around 47% for Democrats and 46% for Republicans, reflecting a demographic historically leaning Republican but with softened advantages amid broader generic ballot trends and independent shifts. Both parties are targeting messages on cost of living and entitlements to gain separation ahead of November, while turnout patterns among women 50 and older could prove decisive in close districts.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.

In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available.

In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.

In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.

In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.

If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 6, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent polling from Pew and other surveys shows older women voters split nearly evenly between Democratic and Republican congressional candidates, with margins often within a few points as economic pressures and concerns over Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare costs remain top issues. This balance aligns with trader consensus around 47% for Democrats and 46% for Republicans, reflecting a demographic historically leaning Republican but with softened advantages amid broader generic ballot trends and independent shifts. Both parties are targeting messages on cost of living and entitlements to gain separation ahead of November, while turnout patterns among women 50 and older could prove decisive in close districts.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.

In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available.

In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.

In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.

In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.

If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 6, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party will win older women in the midterms?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democrats" at 47%, followed by "Republicans" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which party will win older women in the midterms?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which party will win older women in the midterms?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party will win older women in the midterms?" is "Democrats" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republicans" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party will win older women in the midterms?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.