Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

icon for Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

40% chance
Polymarket
NEW
40% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent high-end auction results, including the $181 million Jackson Pollock sale at Christie’s in May 2026 and the $236 million Gustav Klimt record at Sotheby’s in late 2025, have reinforced trader confidence in sustained demand for trophy modern and contemporary works. These outliers reflect strong private-bidder participation and favorable provenance alignments that can push results well above estimates. At the same time, the thin pipeline of confirmed masterpieces with $150 million-plus potential for the fall and winter seasons, combined with selective buyer behavior amid broader economic caution, keeps the market-implied odds for a repeat performance by year-end at a measured 61 percent. November New York evening sales remain the key near-term catalyst that could shift consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,596
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent high-end auction results, including the $181 million Jackson Pollock sale at Christie’s in May 2026 and the $236 million Gustav Klimt record at Sotheby’s in late 2025, have reinforced trader confidence in sustained demand for trophy modern and contemporary works. These outliers reflect strong private-bidder participation and favorable provenance alignments that can push results well above estimates. At the same time, the thin pipeline of confirmed masterpieces with $150 million-plus potential for the fall and winter seasons, combined with selective buyer behavior amid broader economic caution, keeps the market-implied odds for a repeat performance by year-end at a measured 61 percent. November New York evening sales remain the key near-term catalyst that could shift consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,596
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

33%
icon for Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?

Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?

31%
icon for Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?

Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?

9%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 59% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 59¢, the market collectively assigns a 59% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" is 59% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 59% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.