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Geopolitics·Colombia

Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Colombia

Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?

4% chance
Polymarket

$50,359 Vol.

4% chance
Polymarket

$50,359 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. U.S. officials clarified on March 31 that Colombian President Gustavo Petro faces no criminal charges despite early-stage Department of Justice probes in New York into alleged drug trafficker ties to his campaign financing, as first reported mid-March. These preliminary inquiries by federal prosecutors and the DEA, labeling Petro a "priority target," have not advanced to indictment amid diplomatic sensitivities involving a sitting head of state from a key U.S. ally. Trader consensus at 95.7% "No" reflects the short timeline to April 30 and historical reluctance to charge foreign leaders without overwhelming evidence, though cooperating witnesses or sealed indictment unsealing could rapidly shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$50,359
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. U.S. officials clarified on March 31 that Colombian President Gustavo Petro faces no criminal charges despite early-stage Department of Justice probes in New York into alleged drug trafficker ties to his campaign financing, as first reported mid-March. These preliminary inquiries by federal prosecutors and the DEA, labeling Petro a "priority target," have not advanced to indictment amid diplomatic sensitivities involving a sitting head of state from a key U.S. ally. Trader consensus at 95.7% "No" reflects the short timeline to April 30 and historical reluctance to charge foreign leaders without overwhelming evidence, though cooperating witnesses or sealed indictment unsealing could rapidly shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$50,359
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 4% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 4¢, the market collectively assigns a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?" has generated $50.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?" is 4% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.