**Maduro faces federal narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set after he and his wife pleaded not guilty.** Defense counsel has filed motions to dismiss on sovereign and head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17, 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case proceeds to conviction or sentencing. Recent filings show Cilia Flores seeking release on health grounds amid ongoing pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center, while broader U.S.-Venezuela talks on transition and oil cooperation add variables that could influence outcomes short of a full trial. Traders price "no prison time" slightly ahead of a 60-plus-year sentence as the leading resolutions because successful immunity challenges, plea arrangements, or political resolutions remain plausible before the 2027 proceedings conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMaduro Prison Time?
Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time 49%
60+ 37%
<20 7.8%
20–40 4.2%
$732,714 Vol.
$732,714 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
No prison time
49%
<20
8%
20–40
4%
40–60
1%
60+
37%
No prison time 49%
60+ 37%
<20 7.8%
20–40 4.2%
$732,714 Vol.
$732,714 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
No prison time
$443,081 Vol.
49%
<20
$112,215 Vol.
8%
20–40
$59,630 Vol.
4%
40–60
$27,115 Vol.
1%
60+
$90,673 Vol.
37%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro faces federal narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set after he and his wife pleaded not guilty.** Defense counsel has filed motions to dismiss on sovereign and head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17, 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case proceeds to conviction or sentencing. Recent filings show Cilia Flores seeking release on health grounds amid ongoing pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center, while broader U.S.-Venezuela talks on transition and oil cooperation add variables that could influence outcomes short of a full trial. Traders price "no prison time" slightly ahead of a 60-plus-year sentence as the leading resolutions because successful immunity challenges, plea arrangements, or political resolutions remain plausible before the 2027 proceedings conclude.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$732,714End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro faces federal narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set after he and his wife pleaded not guilty.** Defense counsel has filed motions to dismiss on sovereign and head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17, 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case proceeds to conviction or sentencing. Recent filings show Cilia Flores seeking release on health grounds amid ongoing pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center, while broader U.S.-Venezuela talks on transition and oil cooperation add variables that could influence outcomes short of a full trial. Traders price "no prison time" slightly ahead of a 60-plus-year sentence as the leading resolutions because successful immunity challenges, plea arrangements, or political resolutions remain plausible before the 2027 proceedings conclude.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$732,714End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Maduro faces federal narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges in the Southern District of New York following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set after he and his wife pleaded not guilty.** Defense counsel has filed motions to dismiss on sovereign and head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 17, 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case proceeds to conviction or sentencing. Recent filings show Cilia Flores seeking release on health grounds amid ongoing pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center, while broader U.S.-Venezuela talks on transition and oil cooperation add variables that could influence outcomes short of a full trial. Traders price "no prison time" slightly ahead of a 60-plus-year sentence as the leading resolutions because successful immunity challenges, plea arrangements, or political resolutions remain plausible before the 2027 proceedings conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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