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Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

icon for World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

Kylian Mbappe 100.0%

Lionel Messi <1%

Cristiano Ronaldo <1%

Jude Bellingham <1%

Polymarket

$76,664,218 Vol.

Kylian Mbappe 100.0%

Lionel Messi <1%

Cristiano Ronaldo <1%

Jude Bellingham <1%

Polymarket

$76,664,218 Vol.

Lionel Messi

$11,152,808 Vol.

No

Cristiano Ronaldo

$3,367,960 Vol.

No

Jude Bellingham

$3,596,133 Vol.

No

Raphinha

$404,226 Vol.

No

Noah Okafor

$374,269 Vol.

No

Scott McTominay

$292,882 Vol.

No

Rodrygo

$276,379 Vol.

No

Deniz Undav

$817,981 Vol.

No

Amad Diallo

$677,469 Vol.

No

Depay Memphis

$400,213 Vol.

No

Erling Haaland

$2,903,653 Vol.

No

Kylian Mbappe

$8,273,739 Vol.

Yes

Lamine Yamal

$2,641,574 Vol.

No

Heung-Min Son

$324,299 Vol.

No

Edin Džeko

$301,524 Vol.

No

Vinicius Junior

$1,647,835 Vol.

No

Igor Thiago

$1,649,558 Vol.

No

Serge Gnabry

$212,871 Vol.

No

Viktor Gyökeres

$428,036 Vol.

No

Cody Gakpo

$2,100,160 Vol.

No

Ferran Torres

$646,161 Vol.

No

Marcus Thuram

$219,849 Vol.

No

Ousmane Dembele

$4,120,566 Vol.

No

Michael Olise

$2,647,205 Vol.

No

Luis Diaz

$512,979 Vol.

No

Ivan Perišić

$279,137 Vol.

No

Andrej Kramarić

$263,767 Vol.

No

Mohamed Salah

$493,684 Vol.

No

Dani Olmo

$458,303 Vol.

No

Desire Doue

$723,374 Vol.

No

Bradley Barcola

$1,174,585 Vol.

No

Sadio Mane

$301,284 Vol.

No

Rafael Leao

$842,465 Vol.

No

Julian Alvarez

$797,813 Vol.

No

Bukayo Saka

$1,594,522 Vol.

No

Harry Kane

$4,246,503 Vol.

No

Lautaro Martinez

$630,207 Vol.

No

Bruno Fernandes

$440,260 Vol.

No

Pedri

$572,355 Vol.

No

Luis Javier Suárez

$610,090 Vol.

No

Kai Havertz

$674,048 Vol.

No

Romelu Lukaku

$1,652,858 Vol.

No

Tim Payne

$43,358 Vol.

No

Donyell Malen

$720,499 Vol.

No

Antoine Semenyo

$498,338 Vol.

No

Mikel Oyarzabal

$5,683,265 Vol.

No

Federico Valverde

$1,478,820 Vol.

No

Dion Beljo

$154,558 Vol.

No

Endrick

$693,806 Vol.

No

Folarin Balogun

$817,698 Vol.

No

Florian Wirtz

$484,391 Vol.

No

Memphis Depay

$343,899 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kylian Mbappé leads the Golden Boot market at 25.5% implied probability after opening his 2026 account with goals for France in the group stage, building on his 2022 triumph and strong club output at Real Madrid. Lionel Messi sits close behind at 21.1% on the strength of Argentina’s attacking depth and his prior tournament pedigree, while Harry Kane holds 19.5% following a record 61-goal club season at Bayern Munich that reinforces his proven international finishing. Erling Haaland and emerging options like Kai Havertz trail further back, reflecting their teams’ paths and variable early returns. With the expanded 48-team format extending run-ins and several elite forwards still in contention, the tight spread among the top three underscores how group-stage results, knockout progression, and minor scoring swings can rapidly shift consensus on who claims the most goals.

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,664,218
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kylian Mbappé leads the Golden Boot market at 25.5% implied probability after opening his 2026 account with goals for France in the group stage, building on his 2022 triumph and strong club output at Real Madrid. Lionel Messi sits close behind at 21.1% on the strength of Argentina’s attacking depth and his prior tournament pedigree, while Harry Kane holds 19.5% following a record 61-goal club season at Bayern Munich that reinforces his proven international finishing. Erling Haaland and emerging options like Kai Havertz trail further back, reflecting their teams’ paths and variable early returns. With the expanded 48-team format extending run-ins and several elite forwards still in contention, the tight spread among the top three underscores how group-stage results, knockout progression, and minor scoring swings can rapidly shift consensus on who claims the most goals.

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,664,218
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Golden Boot Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 52+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kylian Mbappe" at 100%, followed by "Lionel Messi" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner" has generated $76.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner," browse the 52+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner" is "Kylian Mbappe" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lionel Messi" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.