Traders' near-unanimous consensus at 99.1% for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome stems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 30 bulletin, confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature at 14.89°C—1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline and 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average—aligning precisely with NASA's GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) versus its 1951–1980 reference, the market's resolution source. This joint third-warmest April on record was propelled by near-record sea surface temperatures outside polar regions, strong marine heatwaves in the equatorial Pacific, and an emerging shift from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Realistic challenges include minor dataset divergences (e.g., NOAA or Berkeley Earth variances) or preliminary NASA LOTI revisions, though the market resolves to the first reported value by early May, cementing the outcome barring major discrepancies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAvril 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Avril 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
1,15–1,19 ºC 99.1%
1,10–1,14 ºC <1%
1,20–1,24 ºC <1%
1,25–1,29 ºC <1%
$364,624 Vol.
$364,624 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14 ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19 ºC
99%
1,20–1,24 ºC
<1%
1,25–1,29 ºC
<1%
>1,29ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19 ºC 99.1%
1,10–1,14 ºC <1%
1,20–1,24 ºC <1%
1,25–1,29 ºC <1%
$364,624 Vol.
$364,624 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<1,10ºC
$63,023 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14 ºC
$64,978 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19 ºC
$48,186 Vol.
99%
1,20–1,24 ºC
$77,555 Vol.
<1%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$62,810 Vol.
<1%
>1,29ºC
$48,073 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders' near-unanimous consensus at 99.1% for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome stems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 30 bulletin, confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature at 14.89°C—1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline and 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average—aligning precisely with NASA's GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) versus its 1951–1980 reference, the market's resolution source. This joint third-warmest April on record was propelled by near-record sea surface temperatures outside polar regions, strong marine heatwaves in the equatorial Pacific, and an emerging shift from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Realistic challenges include minor dataset divergences (e.g., NOAA or Berkeley Earth variances) or preliminary NASA LOTI revisions, though the market resolves to the first reported value by early May, cementing the outcome barring major discrepancies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$364,624Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders' near-unanimous consensus at 99.1% for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome stems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 30 bulletin, confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature at 14.89°C—1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline and 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average—aligning precisely with NASA's GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) versus its 1951–1980 reference, the market's resolution source. This joint third-warmest April on record was propelled by near-record sea surface temperatures outside polar regions, strong marine heatwaves in the equatorial Pacific, and an emerging shift from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Realistic challenges include minor dataset divergences (e.g., NOAA or Berkeley Earth variances) or preliminary NASA LOTI revisions, though the market resolves to the first reported value by early May, cementing the outcome barring major discrepancies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$364,624Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus at 99.1% for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome stems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's April 30 bulletin, confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature at 14.89°C—1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline and 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average—aligning precisely with NASA's GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) versus its 1951–1980 reference, the market's resolution source. This joint third-warmest April on record was propelled by near-record sea surface temperatures outside polar regions, strong marine heatwaves in the equatorial Pacific, and an emerging shift from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Realistic challenges include minor dataset divergences (e.g., NOAA or Berkeley Earth variances) or preliminary NASA LOTI revisions, though the market resolves to the first reported value by early May, cementing the outcome barring major discrepancies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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