Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England Bank Rate at 3.75% for the April 30 MPC meeting, reflecting sticky yet stable UK CPI inflation at 3.0% through February—above the 2% target but unchanged month-on-month—and the March 19 unanimous hold amid balanced risks. Recent catalysts include the April 8 Middle East ceasefire alleviating energy price shocks from prior conflict, alongside Governor Bailey's April 1 comments that markets remain ahead on pricing hikes, tempering rate rise odds to 3.6%. Realistic challenges include a ceasefire breakdown reigniting inflation, hotter March CPI data, or surging wage growth prompting a policy shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en avril ?
Décision de la Banque d'Angleterre en avril ?
Pas de changement 96.2%
Augmentation 3.6%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
$446,091 Vol.
$446,091 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
96%
Augmentation
4%
Pas de changement 96.2%
Augmentation 3.6%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
$446,091 Vol.
$446,091 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
96%
Augmentation
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England Bank Rate at 3.75% for the April 30 MPC meeting, reflecting sticky yet stable UK CPI inflation at 3.0% through February—above the 2% target but unchanged month-on-month—and the March 19 unanimous hold amid balanced risks. Recent catalysts include the April 8 Middle East ceasefire alleviating energy price shocks from prior conflict, alongside Governor Bailey's April 1 comments that markets remain ahead on pricing hikes, tempering rate rise odds to 3.6%. Realistic challenges include a ceasefire breakdown reigniting inflation, hotter March CPI data, or surging wage growth prompting a policy shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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