Polymarket traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3½–3¾% federal funds target range at the April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust consensus amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, underscoring economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with brokerages forecasting steady rates through much of 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or unexpectedly dovish Powell remarks, though current momentum favors the status quo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en avril ?
Décision de la Fed en avril ?
Aucun changement 99.6%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$160,332,961 Vol.
$160,332,961 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
<1%
Aucun changement
100%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
<1%
Aucun changement 99.6%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$160,332,961 Vol.
$160,332,961 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$55,568,240 Vol.
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
$32,907,867 Vol.
<1%
Aucun changement
$34,942,014 Vol.
100%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
$36,933,025 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3½–3¾% federal funds target range at the April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust consensus amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, underscoring economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with brokerages forecasting steady rates through much of 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or unexpectedly dovish Powell remarks, though current momentum favors the status quo.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$160,332,961Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3½–3¾% federal funds target range at the April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust consensus amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, underscoring economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with brokerages forecasting steady rates through much of 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or unexpectedly dovish Powell remarks, though current momentum favors the status quo.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$160,332,961Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3½–3¾% federal funds target range at the April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust consensus amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, underscoring economic strength that tempers rate-cut expectations. March FOMC minutes revealed officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with brokerages forecasting steady rates through much of 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or unexpectedly dovish Powell remarks, though current momentum favors the status quo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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