Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to exactly one dissent at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of restored policy unity following the April 28-29 session's four dissents—the most since 1992—driven by hawkish pushback against an easing bias amid $120 Brent oil shocks and tariff-fueled inflation pressures. This recent fracture, highlighted in the 8-4 vote split, marked a stagflation debate outlier against Powell-era norms of zero or single dissents, with his post-May 15 transition to governor role anticipated to stabilize signals. Key risks include hotter-than-expected May CPI or nonfarm payrolls data reigniting divisions, potentially elevating multi-dissent odds if labor softens unexpectedly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1 100%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$1,529,898 Vol.
$1,529,898 Vol.
0
Non
1
Oui
2
Non
3
Non
4+
Non
1 100%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$1,529,898 Vol.
$1,529,898 Vol.
0
Non
1
Oui
2
Non
3
Non
4+
Non
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47de9d...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Résolveur
0x69c47de9d...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to exactly one dissent at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of restored policy unity following the April 28-29 session's four dissents—the most since 1992—driven by hawkish pushback against an easing bias amid $120 Brent oil shocks and tariff-fueled inflation pressures. This recent fracture, highlighted in the 8-4 vote split, marked a stagflation debate outlier against Powell-era norms of zero or single dissents, with his post-May 15 transition to governor role anticipated to stabilize signals. Key risks include hotter-than-expected May CPI or nonfarm payrolls data reigniting divisions, potentially elevating multi-dissent odds if labor softens unexpectedly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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