Geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to drive elevated crude oil prices, with Brent averaging $107 per barrel in May and EIA forecasts pointing to $105/bbl averages for June and July 2026 amid sharp global inventory draws of 6.3 million b/d in Q2. Recent OPEC+ output declines and lowered 2026 demand growth projections to 970,000 b/d reflect demand destruction from high prices, while stalled ceasefire talks sustain supply risks through end-of-month resolution. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these fundamentals, pricing in limited downside for NYMEX CL futures near term despite potential volatility from any diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPétrole brut (CL) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
$138,723 Vol.
90 $
25%
85 $
24%
80 $
36%
75 $
83%
70 $
93%
65 $
97%
63 $
94%
60 $
97%
56 $
99%
55 $
98%
52 $
99%
50 $
99%
$138,723 Vol.
90 $
25%
85 $
24%
80 $
36%
75 $
83%
70 $
93%
65 $
97%
63 $
94%
60 $
97%
56 $
99%
55 $
98%
52 $
99%
50 $
99%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to drive elevated crude oil prices, with Brent averaging $107 per barrel in May and EIA forecasts pointing to $105/bbl averages for June and July 2026 amid sharp global inventory draws of 6.3 million b/d in Q2. Recent OPEC+ output declines and lowered 2026 demand growth projections to 970,000 b/d reflect demand destruction from high prices, while stalled ceasefire talks sustain supply risks through end-of-month resolution. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these fundamentals, pricing in limited downside for NYMEX CL futures near term despite potential volatility from any diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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