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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne

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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne

Prospérité 92.2%

GPDP 5.1%

TPLF <1%

EZEMA <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Prospérité 92.2%

GPDP 5.1%

TPLF <1%

EZEMA <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Le Parti de la Prospérité (Prospérité) remportera-t-il le plus de sièges lors des élections générales éthiopiennes de 2026 ? icon

Prospérité

$3,058 Vol.

92%

Le Parti démocratique du peuple Gedeo (GPDP) remportera-t-il le plus de sièges lors des élections générales éthiopiennes de 2026 ? icon

GPDP

$1,708 Vol.

5%

Le Front de libération du peuple du Tigré (TPLF) remportera-t-il le plus de sièges aux élections générales éthiopiennes de 2026 ? icon

TPLF

$1,103 Vol.

<1%

Le Parti des citoyens éthiopiens pour la justice sociale (EZEMA) remportera-t-il le plus de sièges lors des élections générales éthiopiennes de 2026 ? icon

EZEMA

$0 Vol.

<1%

Le Mouvement National Amhara (NaMA) remportera-t-il le plus grand nombre de sièges lors des élections générales éthiopiennes de 2026 ? icon

NaMA

$1,242 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).**Prosperity Party's commanding 93% trader consensus stems from its institutional dominance as the incumbent ruling party, controlling key bodies like the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) amid fragmented and weakened opposition.** Ongoing insurgencies by Fano militias in Amhara and Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia have restricted campaigning and voter registration in major regions, with TPLF deregistered and Tigray largely sidelined—mirroring the 2021 landslide where Prosperity captured 455 of 471 contested seats. Recent developments include NEBE's April announcement of 36.9 million registered voters and ongoing candidate nominations, but commentaries highlight coercion risks and uncontested constituencies. With the June 1 vote approaching, barriers to rivals remain high; shifts could arise from election postponement due to escalated conflict, mass boycotts, or legal disputes delaying resolution past December 31.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volume
$7,111
Date de fin
1 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).**Prosperity Party's commanding 93% trader consensus stems from its institutional dominance as the incumbent ruling party, controlling key bodies like the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) amid fragmented and weakened opposition.** Ongoing insurgencies by Fano militias in Amhara and Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia have restricted campaigning and voter registration in major regions, with TPLF deregistered and Tigray largely sidelined—mirroring the 2021 landslide where Prosperity captured 455 of 471 contested seats. Recent developments include NEBE's April announcement of 36.9 million registered voters and ongoing candidate nominations, but commentaries highlight coercion risks and uncontested constituencies. With the June 1 vote approaching, barriers to rivals remain high; shifts could arise from election postponement due to escalated conflict, mass boycotts, or legal disputes delaying resolution past December 31.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volume
$7,111
Date de fin
1 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Prospérité » à 92%, suivi de « GPDP » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 92¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Dec 16, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne » est « Prospérité » à 92%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 92% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « GPDP » à 5%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire éthiopienne » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.