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icon for Décision de la Fed en octobre ?
Économie·Taux Globaux

Décision de la Fed en octobre ?

icon for Décision de la Fed en octobre ?
Économie·Taux Globaux

Décision de la Fed en octobre ?

sept. 16

oct. 28

déc. 9

janv. 27, 2027

sept. 16

oct. 28

déc. 9

janv. 27, 2027

Aucun changement 68%

Hausse de 25 points de base 31%

Baisse de 25 points de base 2.6%

Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%

Polymarket

$1,387,483 Vol.

Aucun changement 68%

Hausse de 25 points de base 31%

Baisse de 25 points de base 2.6%

Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%

Polymarket

$1,387,483 Vol.

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base

$232,498 Vol.

<1%

Baisse de 25 points de base

$531,252 Vol.

3%

Aucun changement

$220,949 Vol.

68%

Hausse de 25 points de base

$247,390 Vol.

31%

Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base

$155,393 Vol.

1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation from energy price surges tied to Middle East developments has kept the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent, anchoring trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting with 67.5 percent implied probability. Stable labor market conditions, including 4.1 percent unemployment and contained wage growth in recent August data, have limited support for easing while tempering aggressive tightening bets. Hawkish June 2026 projections from policymakers, reflecting upward revisions to PCE inflation forecasts near 3.6 percent for year-end, underpin the 30.5 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome. Market-implied odds price in a data-dependent path ahead of the September FOMC and upcoming CPI releases rather than a predetermined shift.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,387,483
Date de fin
28 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation from energy price surges tied to Middle East developments has kept the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent, anchoring trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting with 67.5 percent implied probability. Stable labor market conditions, including 4.1 percent unemployment and contained wage growth in recent August data, have limited support for easing while tempering aggressive tightening bets. Hawkish June 2026 projections from policymakers, reflecting upward revisions to PCE inflation forecasts near 3.6 percent for year-end, underpin the 30.5 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome. Market-implied odds price in a data-dependent path ahead of the September FOMC and upcoming CPI releases rather than a predetermined shift.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,387,483
Date de fin
28 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for La Fed augmentera-t-elle les taux d'intérêt de 25 pdb après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?

La Fed augmentera-t-elle les taux d'intérêt de 25 pdb après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?

54%
Oui
icon for N'y aura-t-il aucun changement des taux d'intérêt de la Fed après la réunion de décembre 2026 ?

N'y aura-t-il aucun changement des taux d'intérêt de la Fed après la réunion de décembre 2026 ?

49%
Oui
icon for Le plafond du taux cible des fonds fédéraux sera-t-il de 4,0 % à la fin de 2026 ?

Le plafond du taux cible des fonds fédéraux sera-t-il de 4,0 % à la fin de 2026 ?

41%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Décision de la Fed en octobre ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Aucun changement » à 68%, suivi de « Hausse de 25 points de base » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 68¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 68% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Décision de la Fed en octobre ? » a généré $1.4 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jun 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Décision de la Fed en octobre ? », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Décision de la Fed en octobre ? » est « Aucun changement » à 68%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 68% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Hausse de 25 points de base » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Décision de la Fed en octobre ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.