Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised through Q1 2026 with $1.2 million cash on hand—name recognition, and bipartisan donor support, including AIPAC-linked contributions. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, trails at 31.5% but has narrowed the gap from a March poll (45%-11%) via national DSA endorsement in late March, grassroots canvassing, and recent media visibility, including a May 7 American Prospect profile criticizing Moskowitz's pro-Israel record and absence from town halls. Florida's new congressional map, unveiled early May, splits the district amid ongoing legal challenges, adding uncertainty ahead of the August 18 primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$18,621 Vol.
$18,621 Vol.
18 août 2026
Jared Moskowitz
49%
Oliver Adams Larkin
31%
$18,621 Vol.
$18,621 Vol.
18 août 2026
Jared Moskowitz
$8,099 Vol.
49%
Oliver Adams Larkin
$10,523 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised through Q1 2026 with $1.2 million cash on hand—name recognition, and bipartisan donor support, including AIPAC-linked contributions. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, trails at 31.5% but has narrowed the gap from a March poll (45%-11%) via national DSA endorsement in late March, grassroots canvassing, and recent media visibility, including a May 7 American Prospect profile criticizing Moskowitz's pro-Israel record and absence from town halls. Florida's new congressional map, unveiled early May, splits the district amid ongoing legal challenges, adding uncertainty ahead of the August 18 primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$18,621Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised through Q1 2026 with $1.2 million cash on hand—name recognition, and bipartisan donor support, including AIPAC-linked contributions. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, trails at 31.5% but has narrowed the gap from a March poll (45%-11%) via national DSA endorsement in late March, grassroots canvassing, and recent media visibility, including a May 7 American Prospect profile criticizing Moskowitz's pro-Israel record and absence from town halls. Florida's new congressional map, unveiled early May, splits the district amid ongoing legal challenges, adding uncertainty ahead of the August 18 primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,621Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised through Q1 2026 with $1.2 million cash on hand—name recognition, and bipartisan donor support, including AIPAC-linked contributions. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, trails at 31.5% but has narrowed the gap from a March poll (45%-11%) via national DSA endorsement in late March, grassroots canvassing, and recent media visibility, including a May 7 American Prospect profile criticizing Moskowitz's pro-Israel record and absence from town halls. Florida's new congressional map, unveiled early May, splits the district amid ongoing legal challenges, adding uncertainty ahead of the August 18 primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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