Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 27, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast indicating rain turning cloudy later, with a daytime high of 18–21°C under persistent overcast skies and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% midday. This positioning reflects current observations peaking near 20°C amid cool sea breezes and limited solar heating, consistent with late-April climatology where historical highs average 21°C but cloud-induced suppression is common. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to exceed 21°C, though diminishing sun angles and model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) show low likelihood; monitor JMA's evening update for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 27?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 27?
20°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$263,053 Vol.
$263,053 Vol.
27 avr. 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$263,053 Vol.
$263,053 Vol.
27 avr. 2026
11°C or below
$1,696 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,367 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,290 Vol.
No
14°C
$18,003 Vol.
No
15°C
$18,754 Vol.
No
16°C
$35,040 Vol.
No
17°C
$21,947 Vol.
No
18°C
$30,815 Vol.
No
19°C
$33,516 Vol.
No
20°C
$44,866 Vol.
Yes
21°C or higher
$53,757 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 27, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast indicating rain turning cloudy later, with a daytime high of 18–21°C under persistent overcast skies and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% midday. This positioning reflects current observations peaking near 20°C amid cool sea breezes and limited solar heating, consistent with late-April climatology where historical highs average 21°C but cloud-induced suppression is common. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to exceed 21°C, though diminishing sun angles and model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) show low likelihood; monitor JMA's evening update for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 25, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volume
$263,053Date de fin
27 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 25, 2026, 12:53 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 27, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast indicating rain turning cloudy later, with a daytime high of 18–21°C under persistent overcast skies and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% midday. This positioning reflects current observations peaking near 20°C amid cool sea breezes and limited solar heating, consistent with late-April climatology where historical highs average 21°C but cloud-induced suppression is common. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to exceed 21°C, though diminishing sun angles and model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) show low likelihood; monitor JMA's evening update for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$263,053Date de fin
27 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 25, 2026, 12:53 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 27, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast indicating rain turning cloudy later, with a daytime high of 18–21°C under persistent overcast skies and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% midday. This positioning reflects current observations peaking near 20°C amid cool sea breezes and limited solar heating, consistent with late-April climatology where historical highs average 21°C but cloud-induced suppression is common. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to exceed 21°C, though diminishing sun angles and model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) show low likelihood; monitor JMA's evening update for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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