Market icon

Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?

Market icon

Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?

2 (50 pb) 27%

1 (25 bps) 27%

0 (0 bps) 17.9%

3 (75 points de base) 16%

Polymarket

$8,783,166 Vol.

2 (50 pb) 27%

1 (25 bps) 27%

0 (0 bps) 17.9%

3 (75 points de base) 16%

Polymarket

$8,783,166 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$1,793,818 Vol.

18%

1 (25 bps)

$585,035 Vol.

27%

2 (50 pb)

$541,209 Vol.

27%

3 (75 points de base)

$396,552 Vol.

16%

4 (100 pb)

$389,326 Vol.

5%

5 (125 pb)

$360,401 Vol.

3%

6 (150 points de base)

$1,403,383 Vol.

2%

7 (175 points de base)

$423,031 Vol.

1%

8 (200 points de base)

$528,308 Vol.

1%

9 (225 points de base)

$389,644 Vol.

1%

10 (250 pb)

$419,530 Vol.

1%

11 (275 points de base)

$448,136 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$1,104,794 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$8,783,166
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1 (25 bps)" at 27%, followed by "2 (50 pb)" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?" has generated $8.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?" is "1 (25 bps)" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2 (50 pb)" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.