**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, aligning with the market's leading 60.5% probability on exactly two defeats.** John Cornyn of Texas fell to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May runoff after Trump withheld an endorsement amid a divisive contest focused on stylistic differences within the party. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was defeated earlier in a primary featuring a Trump-backed challenger, driven by lingering opposition to Cassidy's 2021 impeachment vote and positions on health policy. These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party challenges against perceived moderates or Trump critics in safe Republican states, consistent with historical patterns of primary pressure on incumbents who diverge from base priorities. Other GOP Senate incumbents facing 2026 cycles, such as Susan Collins or others with lower-profile contests, have not encountered comparable defeats to date. Trader consensus at 60.5% for two losses and 29.9% for three incorporates the confirmed results while leaving room for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries, though no additional high-profile defeats have materialized as of early August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2 60.5%
3 29.8%
1 <1%
0 <1%
$31,210 Vol.
$31,210 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
61%
3
30%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
2 60.5%
3 29.8%
1 <1%
0 <1%
$31,210 Vol.
$31,210 Vol.
0
$4,131 Vol.
<1%
1
$2,732 Vol.
<1%
2
$14,892 Vol.
61%
3
$3,478 Vol.
30%
4
$2,781 Vol.
<1%
>4
$3,195 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, aligning with the market's leading 60.5% probability on exactly two defeats.** John Cornyn of Texas fell to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May runoff after Trump withheld an endorsement amid a divisive contest focused on stylistic differences within the party. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was defeated earlier in a primary featuring a Trump-backed challenger, driven by lingering opposition to Cassidy's 2021 impeachment vote and positions on health policy.
These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party challenges against perceived moderates or Trump critics in safe Republican states, consistent with historical patterns of primary pressure on incumbents who diverge from base priorities. Other GOP Senate incumbents facing 2026 cycles, such as Susan Collins or others with lower-profile contests, have not encountered comparable defeats to date. Trader consensus at 60.5% for two losses and 29.9% for three incorporates the confirmed results while leaving room for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries, though no additional high-profile defeats have materialized as of early August.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$31,210Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, aligning with the market's leading 60.5% probability on exactly two defeats.** John Cornyn of Texas fell to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May runoff after Trump withheld an endorsement amid a divisive contest focused on stylistic differences within the party. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was defeated earlier in a primary featuring a Trump-backed challenger, driven by lingering opposition to Cassidy's 2021 impeachment vote and positions on health policy.
These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party challenges against perceived moderates or Trump critics in safe Republican states, consistent with historical patterns of primary pressure on incumbents who diverge from base priorities. Other GOP Senate incumbents facing 2026 cycles, such as Susan Collins or others with lower-profile contests, have not encountered comparable defeats to date. Trader consensus at 60.5% for two losses and 29.9% for three incorporates the confirmed results while leaving room for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries, though no additional high-profile defeats have materialized as of early August.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$31,210Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, aligning with the market's leading 60.5% probability on exactly two defeats.** John Cornyn of Texas fell to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May runoff after Trump withheld an endorsement amid a divisive contest focused on stylistic differences within the party. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was defeated earlier in a primary featuring a Trump-backed challenger, driven by lingering opposition to Cassidy's 2021 impeachment vote and positions on health policy. These outcomes reflect targeted intra-party challenges against perceived moderates or Trump critics in safe Republican states, consistent with historical patterns of primary pressure on incumbents who diverge from base priorities. Other GOP Senate incumbents facing 2026 cycles, such as Susan Collins or others with lower-profile contests, have not encountered comparable defeats to date. Trader consensus at 60.5% for two losses and 29.9% for three incorporates the confirmed results while leaving room for any late-cycle surprises in remaining primaries, though no additional high-profile defeats have materialized as of early August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les titulaires démocrates au Sénat remporteront-ils toutes leurs élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
80%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains à la Chambre ne remporteront-ils pas entre quatre et six élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
87%
Oui
Les républicains détiendront-ils 47 à 49 sièges au Sénat et 193 à 207 sièges à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
18%
Oui
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