**Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying most centrifuges and rendering major sites inoperable.** IAEA inspectors lost access after June 2025, leaving the stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium unverified and largely inaccessible under rubble. No active uranium enrichment has been confirmed since the attacks. In early September 2026, the IAEA reported fresh construction at the suspected underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz and referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first such action in two decades. These developments, combined with ongoing diplomatic efforts toward verification and down-blending under any final accord, underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to produce a nuclear weapon before 2027. Uncertainties around clandestine recovery or hidden assets remain, but the scale of prior degradation and sustained international pressure create substantial near-term barriers.