Iran's ongoing conflict with the United States and allies has centered on control of maritime chokepoints, with Tehran conducting repeated strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early July 2026, including attacks on multiple tankers that prompted U.S. counterstrikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missiles, and drone sites. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have escalated parallel actions in the Red Sea, declaring a naval blockade targeting Saudi exports and claiming strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers near Bab el-Mandeb in late July. These developments, occurring amid a fragile post-June ceasefire that unraveled over shipping route disputes, reflect direct efforts to disrupt energy flows and assert influence. Trader assessments of further successful Iranian-linked targeting hinge on whether hostilities persist or de-escalate through diplomacy before any specified resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
NOUVEAU
$15,507 Vol.
9 août 2026
August 9
57%
16 août
66%
August 31
76%
September 30
84%
$15,507 Vol.
August 9
$4,923 Vol.
57%
16 août
$4,638 Vol.
66%
August 31
$3,002 Vol.
76%
September 30
$2,944 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iran's ongoing conflict with the United States and allies has centered on control of maritime chokepoints, with Tehran conducting repeated strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early July 2026, including attacks on multiple tankers that prompted U.S. counterstrikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missiles, and drone sites. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have escalated parallel actions in the Red Sea, declaring a naval blockade targeting Saudi exports and claiming strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers near Bab el-Mandeb in late July. These developments, occurring amid a fragile post-June ceasefire that unraveled over shipping route disputes, reflect direct efforts to disrupt energy flows and assert influence. Trader assessments of further successful Iranian-linked targeting hinge on whether hostilities persist or de-escalate through diplomacy before any specified resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$15,507Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iran's ongoing conflict with the United States and allies has centered on control of maritime chokepoints, with Tehran conducting repeated strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early July 2026, including attacks on multiple tankers that prompted U.S. counterstrikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missiles, and drone sites. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have escalated parallel actions in the Red Sea, declaring a naval blockade targeting Saudi exports and claiming strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers near Bab el-Mandeb in late July. These developments, occurring amid a fragile post-June ceasefire that unraveled over shipping route disputes, reflect direct efforts to disrupt energy flows and assert influence. Trader assessments of further successful Iranian-linked targeting hinge on whether hostilities persist or de-escalate through diplomacy before any specified resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$15,507Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ongoing conflict with the United States and allies has centered on control of maritime chokepoints, with Tehran conducting repeated strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early July 2026, including attacks on multiple tankers that prompted U.S. counterstrikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missiles, and drone sites. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have escalated parallel actions in the Red Sea, declaring a naval blockade targeting Saudi exports and claiming strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers near Bab el-Mandeb in late July. These developments, occurring amid a fragile post-June ceasefire that unraveled over shipping route disputes, reflect direct efforts to disrupt energy flows and assert influence. Trader assessments of further successful Iranian-linked targeting hinge on whether hostilities persist or de-escalate through diplomacy before any specified resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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