Louisiana’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 89.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited primary opposition from two fellow Republicans and two Democratic challengers ahead of the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary, with a potential December runoff. The district’s partisan composition, consistent with a strong Republican tilt in recent cycles, has produced large margins for Johnson, including an 85.8% victory in 2024. No significant shifts in candidate viability, redistricting challenges specific to this seat, or major political developments have altered the outlook in recent months, keeping Democratic prospects low absent an unusual turnout or consolidation scenario.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
LA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
90%
Parti démocrate
10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$870 Vol.
90%
Parti démocrate
$1,416 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 89.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited primary opposition from two fellow Republicans and two Democratic challengers ahead of the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary, with a potential December runoff. The district’s partisan composition, consistent with a strong Republican tilt in recent cycles, has produced large margins for Johnson, including an 85.8% victory in 2024. No significant shifts in candidate viability, redistricting challenges specific to this seat, or major political developments have altered the outlook in recent months, keeping Democratic prospects low absent an unusual turnout or consolidation scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,286Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 89.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited primary opposition from two fellow Republicans and two Democratic challengers ahead of the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary, with a potential December runoff. The district’s partisan composition, consistent with a strong Republican tilt in recent cycles, has produced large margins for Johnson, including an 85.8% victory in 2024. No significant shifts in candidate viability, redistricting challenges specific to this seat, or major political developments have altered the outlook in recent months, keeping Democratic prospects low absent an unusual turnout or consolidation scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,286Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 89.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited primary opposition from two fellow Republicans and two Democratic challengers ahead of the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary, with a potential December runoff. The district’s partisan composition, consistent with a strong Republican tilt in recent cycles, has produced large margins for Johnson, including an 85.8% victory in 2024. No significant shifts in candidate viability, redistricting challenges specific to this seat, or major political developments have altered the outlook in recent months, keeping Democratic prospects low absent an unusual turnout or consolidation scenario.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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