Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend (55% implied probability), driven by its impressive second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop from the record $97 million opening that propelled it past $195 million cumulative domestic and $439 million worldwide. Despite scathing critic reviews, robust audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled fan turnout, evidenced by a solid $4.58 million Monday from 3,955 theaters, outperforming expectations for a music biopic. Lighter competition after Devil Wears Prada 2's splash leaves room for legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody's multiplier, though new releases could pressure toward the 32-35 million bracket (28%); final figures lock May 10 per The Numbers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour« Michael » 3e box-office du week-end
« Michael » 3e box-office du week-end
35-38 M 44.9%
32-35 millions 28%
<32m 21%
>38 M 7.1%
NOUVEAU
$30,207 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$30,207 Vol.
11 mai 2026
<32m
21%
32-35 millions
28%
35-38 M
45%
>38 M
7%
35-38 M 44.9%
32-35 millions 28%
<32m 21%
>38 M 7.1%
NOUVEAU
$30,207 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$30,207 Vol.
11 mai 2026
<32m
$19,520 Vol.
21%
32-35 millions
$3,358 Vol.
28%
35-38 M
$2,060 Vol.
45%
>38 M
$5,269 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend (55% implied probability), driven by its impressive second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop from the record $97 million opening that propelled it past $195 million cumulative domestic and $439 million worldwide. Despite scathing critic reviews, robust audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled fan turnout, evidenced by a solid $4.58 million Monday from 3,955 theaters, outperforming expectations for a music biopic. Lighter competition after Devil Wears Prada 2's splash leaves room for legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody's multiplier, though new releases could pressure toward the 32-35 million bracket (28%); final figures lock May 10 per The Numbers.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Volume
$30,207Date de fin
11 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend (55% implied probability), driven by its impressive second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop from the record $97 million opening that propelled it past $195 million cumulative domestic and $439 million worldwide. Despite scathing critic reviews, robust audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled fan turnout, evidenced by a solid $4.58 million Monday from 3,955 theaters, outperforming expectations for a music biopic. Lighter competition after Devil Wears Prada 2's splash leaves room for legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody's multiplier, though new releases could pressure toward the 32-35 million bracket (28%); final figures lock May 10 per The Numbers.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$30,207Date de fin
11 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Michael Jackson biopic grossing $35-38 million in its third domestic weekend (55% implied probability), driven by its impressive second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop from the record $97 million opening that propelled it past $195 million cumulative domestic and $439 million worldwide. Despite scathing critic reviews, robust audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled fan turnout, evidenced by a solid $4.58 million Monday from 3,955 theaters, outperforming expectations for a music biopic. Lighter competition after Devil Wears Prada 2's splash leaves room for legs akin to Bohemian Rhapsody's multiplier, though new releases could pressure toward the 32-35 million bracket (28%); final figures lock May 10 per The Numbers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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