Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of merged code at Anthropic as of May 2026 and leading 26% of model R&D by August, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 introduced an RSI Index measuring automated research tasks and an “AI research intern” handling multi-day projects. These metrics, detailed in Anthropic’s June “When AI Builds Itself” post and OpenAI statements from September, reflect a shift from human-driven to AI-augmented iteration on training, coding, and experimentation. Competitive pressure between the labs, alongside shared safety concerns from leaders like Dario Amodei and Sam Altman, has prompted public calls for verifiable pacing mechanisms if autonomous successor design emerges. Full recursive self-improvement remains unannounced, with both firms stressing ongoing human oversight and alignment challenges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre 2026
10%
31 décembre 2026
13%
$540 Vol.
31 octobre 2026
$272 Vol.
10%
31 décembre 2026
$268 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of merged code at Anthropic as of May 2026 and leading 26% of model R&D by August, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 introduced an RSI Index measuring automated research tasks and an “AI research intern” handling multi-day projects. These metrics, detailed in Anthropic’s June “When AI Builds Itself” post and OpenAI statements from September, reflect a shift from human-driven to AI-augmented iteration on training, coding, and experimentation. Competitive pressure between the labs, alongside shared safety concerns from leaders like Dario Amodei and Sam Altman, has prompted public calls for verifiable pacing mechanisms if autonomous successor design emerges. Full recursive self-improvement remains unannounced, with both firms stressing ongoing human oversight and alignment challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Volume
$540Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of merged code at Anthropic as of May 2026 and leading 26% of model R&D by August, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 introduced an RSI Index measuring automated research tasks and an “AI research intern” handling multi-day projects. These metrics, detailed in Anthropic’s June “When AI Builds Itself” post and OpenAI statements from September, reflect a shift from human-driven to AI-augmented iteration on training, coding, and experimentation. Competitive pressure between the labs, alongside shared safety concerns from leaders like Dario Amodei and Sam Altman, has prompted public calls for verifiable pacing mechanisms if autonomous successor design emerges. Full recursive self-improvement remains unannounced, with both firms stressing ongoing human oversight and alignment challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$540Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of merged code at Anthropic as of May 2026 and leading 26% of model R&D by August, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 introduced an RSI Index measuring automated research tasks and an “AI research intern” handling multi-day projects. These metrics, detailed in Anthropic’s June “When AI Builds Itself” post and OpenAI statements from September, reflect a shift from human-driven to AI-augmented iteration on training, coding, and experimentation. Competitive pressure between the labs, alongside shared safety concerns from leaders like Dario Amodei and Sam Altman, has prompted public calls for verifiable pacing mechanisms if autonomous successor design emerges. Full recursive self-improvement remains unannounced, with both firms stressing ongoing human oversight and alignment challenges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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