Russia has maintained a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption amid U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No tests have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret detonations as recently as February 2026 and reaffirming commitment to the moratorium on April 20 unless violated by others. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration has heightened arms race concerns, but recent activity focuses on nuclear-capable missile trials like Sarmat ICBM NOTAMs in mid-April, not explosive tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalations against verifiable restraint, with no scheduled nuclear tests announced.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$1,344,483 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
2%
30 septembre 2026
6%
31 décembre 2026
12%
$1,344,483 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$5,995 Vol.
2%
30 septembre 2026
$1,737 Vol.
6%
31 décembre 2026
$12,179 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has maintained a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption amid U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No tests have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret detonations as recently as February 2026 and reaffirming commitment to the moratorium on April 20 unless violated by others. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration has heightened arms race concerns, but recent activity focuses on nuclear-capable missile trials like Sarmat ICBM NOTAMs in mid-April, not explosive tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalations against verifiable restraint, with no scheduled nuclear tests announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,344,483Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has maintained a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption amid U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No tests have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret detonations as recently as February 2026 and reaffirming commitment to the moratorium on April 20 unless violated by others. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration has heightened arms race concerns, but recent activity focuses on nuclear-capable missile trials like Sarmat ICBM NOTAMs in mid-April, not explosive tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalations against verifiable restraint, with no scheduled nuclear tests announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,344,483Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has maintained a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption amid U.S. signals under the Trump administration. No tests have occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret detonations as recently as February 2026 and reaffirming commitment to the moratorium on April 20 unless violated by others. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration has heightened arms race concerns, but recent activity focuses on nuclear-capable missile trials like Sarmat ICBM NOTAMs in mid-April, not explosive tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalations against verifiable restraint, with no scheduled nuclear tests announced.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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