The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in *Watson v. Republican National Committee* showed a clear majority of justices skeptical of state laws permitting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received days later. Challengers, including the RNC, contend that the 1845 federal statute setting a uniform Election Day requires ballots to be received—not merely cast—by that date, preempting grace periods in roughly 15 states and D.C. Lower-court precedent and questions from conservative justices during argument reinforced expectations of a ruling striking down Mississippi’s five-day receipt window, with a decision anticipated by late June. Traders have priced this procedural and jurisprudential trajectory into the 73.5% implied probability for a bar on post-Election Day counting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLES BARRES SCOTUS comptent-elles les bulletins postaux après le jour du scrutin ?
LES BARRES SCOTUS comptent-elles les bulletins postaux après le jour du scrutin ?
Oui
$385,840 Vol.
$385,840 Vol.
1 août 2026
Oui
$385,840 Vol.
$385,840 Vol.
1 août 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in *Watson v. Republican National Committee* showed a clear majority of justices skeptical of state laws permitting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received days later. Challengers, including the RNC, contend that the 1845 federal statute setting a uniform Election Day requires ballots to be received—not merely cast—by that date, preempting grace periods in roughly 15 states and D.C. Lower-court precedent and questions from conservative justices during argument reinforced expectations of a ruling striking down Mississippi’s five-day receipt window, with a decision anticipated by late June. Traders have priced this procedural and jurisprudential trajectory into the 73.5% implied probability for a bar on post-Election Day counting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$385,840Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in *Watson v. Republican National Committee* showed a clear majority of justices skeptical of state laws permitting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received days later. Challengers, including the RNC, contend that the 1845 federal statute setting a uniform Election Day requires ballots to be received—not merely cast—by that date, preempting grace periods in roughly 15 states and D.C. Lower-court precedent and questions from conservative justices during argument reinforced expectations of a ruling striking down Mississippi’s five-day receipt window, with a decision anticipated by late June. Traders have priced this procedural and jurisprudential trajectory into the 73.5% implied probability for a bar on post-Election Day counting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$385,840Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in *Watson v. Republican National Committee* showed a clear majority of justices skeptical of state laws permitting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received days later. Challengers, including the RNC, contend that the 1845 federal statute setting a uniform Election Day requires ballots to be received—not merely cast—by that date, preempting grace periods in roughly 15 states and D.C. Lower-court precedent and questions from conservative justices during argument reinforced expectations of a ruling striking down Mississippi’s five-day receipt window, with a decision anticipated by late June. Traders have priced this procedural and jurisprudential trajectory into the 73.5% implied probability for a bar on post-Election Day counting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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