**Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he intends to serve another full term has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy this year.** At age 76, Alito directly addressed and dismissed earlier speculation fueled by an erroneous June NPR report, aligning with the absence of retirement signals from the other eight justices, including 78-year-old Clarence Thomas. No health disclosures, official announcements, or procedural developments have emerged to suggest an opening before December 31. The court remains at its full nine-member complement, and the November midterms—while potentially shifting Senate dynamics for any future confirmation—have not prompted departures in the current calendar year. This combination of explicit statements and lack of contrary indicators supports the current 76% implied probability that no vacancy will occur in 2026.