The fixed constitutional schedule for US midterm elections, held every two years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, anchors trader consensus at a 97.4% implied probability for the 2026 contests proceeding on time. No recent legislative proposals, court rulings, or executive actions have signaled delays, and historical precedent shows continuity through wars, recessions, and public health crises. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural barriers, including state election administration timelines and federal statutes governing House and Senate terms. Late-breaking national emergencies or rare constitutional disputes could theoretically shift timelines, though such events remain low-probability outliers based on established patterns.