Trader consensus around a 97% probability that the 2026 midterm elections will occur on schedule reflects the U.S. Constitution’s fixed requirement for House and one-third of Senate seats to be contested every two years. No legislation, executive orders, or court rulings have altered this timeline, and recent congressional activity shows no procedural moves toward postponement. Historical precedent confirms midterms have proceeded without interruption even during periods of national stress. Potential shifts could arise only from extraordinary events such as a declared national emergency suspending voting logistics, widespread infrastructure collapse affecting multiple states, or a constitutional crisis blocking candidate certification, none of which are currently indicated by official statements or legislative calendars.