**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-130 million House votes in the 2026 midterms because elevated polarization and a Democratic enthusiasm edge are balancing against typical midterm drop-off.** Low presidential approval ratings and a roughly six-point Democratic generic ballot lead have sustained opposition mobilization, reflected in stronger Democratic primary turnout and special election performance even in Republican-leaning districts. Expanded mail and early voting options, combined with competitive districts nationalized by economic concerns and policy debates, support participation above historical midterms like 2014 while falling short of 2018 peaks. The narrow Republican House majority and redistricting shifts add uncertainty about final mobilization on both sides. Late-campaign developments on the economy, candidate messaging, or turnout operations in key states could widen the range by altering base engagement in the final weeks before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour125-130m 23%
115-120m 21%
120-125 millions 18%
110-115 millions 16%
$28,027 Vol.
$28,027 Vol.
<85M
1%
85-90 millions
<1%
90-95 millions
1%
95-100m
2%
100-105m
4%
105-110m
7%
110-115 millions
16%
115-120m
21%
120-125 millions
18%
125-130m
23%
130M+
4%
125-130m 23%
115-120m 21%
120-125 millions 18%
110-115 millions 16%
$28,027 Vol.
$28,027 Vol.
<85M
1%
85-90 millions
<1%
90-95 millions
1%
95-100m
2%
100-105m
4%
105-110m
7%
110-115 millions
16%
115-120m
21%
120-125 millions
18%
125-130m
23%
130M+
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-130 million House votes in the 2026 midterms because elevated polarization and a Democratic enthusiasm edge are balancing against typical midterm drop-off.** Low presidential approval ratings and a roughly six-point Democratic generic ballot lead have sustained opposition mobilization, reflected in stronger Democratic primary turnout and special election performance even in Republican-leaning districts. Expanded mail and early voting options, combined with competitive districts nationalized by economic concerns and policy debates, support participation above historical midterms like 2014 while falling short of 2018 peaks. The narrow Republican House majority and redistricting shifts add uncertainty about final mobilization on both sides. Late-campaign developments on the economy, candidate messaging, or turnout operations in key states could widen the range by altering base engagement in the final weeks before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le vote populaire lors des élections de mi-mandat à la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis de 2026 avec une avance comprise entre 8 % et 10 % ?
Les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 auront-elles lieu comme prévu ?
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour l’OR-01 ?
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