Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 220 seats amid a national environment favoring Democrats. Generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, tied to President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy, inflation, and the Iran conflict. Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states has bolstered some GOP districts and narrowed the battlefield, helping keep projected seat totals clustered in the low-to-mid 190s to low 200s across models. A modest Democratic swing could produce further losses, while stronger Republican performance in remaining competitive districts or shifts in national sentiment before November could stabilize or improve the majority margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSièges républicains à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
Sièges républicains à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
Moins de 190 24%
195-199 14%
200-204 14.0%
190-194 14%
$290,126 Vol.
$290,126 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Moins de 190
24%
190-194
14%
195-199
14%
200-204
12%
205-209
13%
210-214
11%
215-219
5%
220-224
3%
225-229
5%
230+
3%
Moins de 190 24%
195-199 14%
200-204 14.0%
190-194 14%
$290,126 Vol.
$290,126 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Moins de 190
$35,815 Vol.
24%
190-194
$13,879 Vol.
14%
195-199
$32,644 Vol.
14%
200-204
$25,016 Vol.
12%
205-209
$40,470 Vol.
13%
210-214
$15,803 Vol.
11%
215-219
$11,463 Vol.
5%
220-224
$59,267 Vol.
3%
225-229
$24,767 Vol.
5%
230+
$31,001 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 220 seats amid a national environment favoring Democrats. Generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, tied to President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy, inflation, and the Iran conflict. Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states has bolstered some GOP districts and narrowed the battlefield, helping keep projected seat totals clustered in the low-to-mid 190s to low 200s across models. A modest Democratic swing could produce further losses, while stronger Republican performance in remaining competitive districts or shifts in national sentiment before November could stabilize or improve the majority margin.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$290,126Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 220 seats amid a national environment favoring Democrats. Generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, tied to President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy, inflation, and the Iran conflict. Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states has bolstered some GOP districts and narrowed the battlefield, helping keep projected seat totals clustered in the low-to-mid 190s to low 200s across models. A modest Democratic swing could produce further losses, while stronger Republican performance in remaining competitive districts or shifts in national sentiment before November could stabilize or improve the majority margin.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$290,126Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 220 seats amid a national environment favoring Democrats. Generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, tied to President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy, inflation, and the Iran conflict. Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states has bolstered some GOP districts and narrowed the battlefield, helping keep projected seat totals clustered in the low-to-mid 190s to low 200s across models. A modest Democratic swing could produce further losses, while stronger Republican performance in remaining competitive districts or shifts in national sentiment before November could stabilize or improve the majority margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le Parti républicain détiendra-t-il 47 sièges ou moins au Sénat après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
26%
Oui
Les républicains détiendront-ils 47 à 49 sièges au Sénat et 193 à 207 sièges à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
23%
Oui
Le Parti démocrate contrôlera-t-il la Chambre des représentants après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
89%
Oui
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