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icon for Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec
Monde·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec

icon for Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec
Monde·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec

Andrés Fontecilla 44%

Derek Lefebvre 44%

Kelly Lazo de la Vega 27%

Emil Parfyonov 26%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Andrés Fontecilla 44%

Derek Lefebvre 44%

Kelly Lazo de la Vega 27%

Emil Parfyonov 26%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Andrés Fontecilla

Andrés Fontecilla

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Derek Lefebvre

Derek Lefebvre

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Kelly Lazo de la Vega

Kelly Lazo de la Vega

$0 Vol.

27%

icon for Emil Parfyonov

Emil Parfyonov

$0 Vol.

26%

icon for Randy Legault-Rankin

Randy Legault-Rankin

$0 Vol.

26%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Laurier-Dorion riding, trader probabilities reflect a tight contest between incumbent Québec solidaire MNA Andrés Fontecilla and Liberal candidate Randy Legault-Rankin, with other nominees from the Parti Québécois, Conservative Party of Quebec, and Coalition Avenir Québec trailing.** The election call on August 27 for the October 5 vote has just begun the campaign, and projections from models such as 338Canada show QS and Liberals locked in a near toss-up based on transposed 2022 results and current provincial polling. Fontecilla’s incumbency since 2018 provides an edge in this Montreal district, while Liberals retain historical strength among key voter blocs on the island. Broader trends, including PQ leads province-wide and QS softness outside urban cores, keep the seat competitive. Limited early-campaign events or local polling have yet to produce separation, leaving room for shifts from debates, turnout patterns, or late developments before nomination closes on September 17.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
5 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Laurier-Dorion riding, trader probabilities reflect a tight contest between incumbent Québec solidaire MNA Andrés Fontecilla and Liberal candidate Randy Legault-Rankin, with other nominees from the Parti Québécois, Conservative Party of Quebec, and Coalition Avenir Québec trailing.** The election call on August 27 for the October 5 vote has just begun the campaign, and projections from models such as 338Canada show QS and Liberals locked in a near toss-up based on transposed 2022 results and current provincial polling. Fontecilla’s incumbency since 2018 provides an edge in this Montreal district, while Liberals retain historical strength among key voter blocs on the island. Broader trends, including PQ leads province-wide and QS softness outside urban cores, keep the seat competitive. Limited early-campaign events or local polling have yet to produce separation, leaving room for shifts from debates, turnout patterns, or late developments before nomination closes on September 17.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
5 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Oui
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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Andrés Fontecilla » à 44%, suivi de « Derek Lefebvre » à 44%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 44¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 31, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » est « Andrés Fontecilla » à 44%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Derek Lefebvre » à 44%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Laurier-Dorion Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.