Skip to main content
icon for Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ?

Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ?

icon for Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ?

Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ?

Oui

3% chance
Polymarket

$21,736 Vol.

Oui

3% chance
Polymarket

$21,736 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-219 seats (including one independent who caucuses with them) against 212-213 Democrats, with a handful of vacancies, creating a functional margin of just a few votes.** This slim edge stems from the 2024 election results and has fluctuated modestly through deaths, resignations, and special elections during the 119th Congress, but remains intact as of late August 2026. Trader consensus at 97.3% against losing the majority before the November 3 midterms reflects the short remaining timeline, the limited number of special elections scheduled, and the fact that most upcoming contests occur in districts safely aligned with the incumbent party. Historical patterns show mid-term flips of chamber control via vacancies or defections are exceedingly rare. **Key factors sustaining this high confidence include the absence of widespread Republican departures or party switches that could erode the margin before Election Day, combined with redistricting advantages and the compressed legislative calendar.** Only a few special elections remain, most rated as safe or likely holds, and no major catalysts—such as multiple simultaneous vacancies or credible defection threats—have emerged in recent weeks. **Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unexpected deaths or resignations among Republican members in competitive districts, surprise upsets in special elections, or coordinated changes in caucus alignment.** These events would need to produce a net loss of several seats in a very brief window to tip control before the midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,736
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-219 seats (including one independent who caucuses with them) against 212-213 Democrats, with a handful of vacancies, creating a functional margin of just a few votes.** This slim edge stems from the 2024 election results and has fluctuated modestly through deaths, resignations, and special elections during the 119th Congress, but remains intact as of late August 2026. Trader consensus at 97.3% against losing the majority before the November 3 midterms reflects the short remaining timeline, the limited number of special elections scheduled, and the fact that most upcoming contests occur in districts safely aligned with the incumbent party. Historical patterns show mid-term flips of chamber control via vacancies or defections are exceedingly rare. **Key factors sustaining this high confidence include the absence of widespread Republican departures or party switches that could erode the margin before Election Day, combined with redistricting advantages and the compressed legislative calendar.** Only a few special elections remain, most rated as safe or likely holds, and no major catalysts—such as multiple simultaneous vacancies or credible defection threats—have emerged in recent weeks. **Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unexpected deaths or resignations among Republican members in competitive districts, surprise upsets in special elections, or coordinated changes in caucus alignment.** These events would need to produce a net loss of several seats in a very brief window to tip control before the midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,736
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Les Républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? » à 3%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 3¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 3% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? » a généré $21.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 13, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? » est « Les Républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? » à seulement 3%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les républicains perdront-ils la majorité à la Chambre avant les élections de mi-mandat ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.