Google's recent Gemini 3.7 Flash update, which lifted its Text Arena math ranking to fourth with notable gains in instruction following and multi-turn tasks, drives the 64.5% market-implied odds for second place by end of October. Strong performance across math benchmarks like FrontierMath and AIME variants, combined with DeepMind's focus on reasoning agents, supports trader consensus that Google trails only top labs such as Anthropic or OpenAI while outpacing others. Lower odds for OpenAI (12.5%) and Anthropic (7.0%) reflect their current frontier leads in several leaderboards, whereas smaller shares for Moonshot, Z.ai, and Alibaba highlight competitive but less consistent math results. Upcoming Gemini iterations and potential Text Arena leaderboard refreshes through October remain key swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 65%
OpenAI 12%
Alibaba 9%
Anthropic 6%
$20,354 Vol.
$20,354 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
65%
OpenAI
12%
Alibaba
9%
Anthropic
6%
Z.ai
4%
Meta
3%
Nvidia
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Baidu
2%
Meituan
2%
Moonshot
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Microsoft
2%
Amazon
2%
StepFun
2%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
<1%
Google 65%
OpenAI 12%
Alibaba 9%
Anthropic 6%
$20,354 Vol.
$20,354 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
$15,496 Vol.
65%
OpenAI
$340 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$520 Vol.
9%
Anthropic
$388 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$283 Vol.
4%
Meta
$176 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$305 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$171 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$106 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$524 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$106 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$144 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$302 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$235 Vol.
2%
StepFun
$223 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$158 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$230 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$259 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$176 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$212 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent Gemini 3.7 Flash update, which lifted its Text Arena math ranking to fourth with notable gains in instruction following and multi-turn tasks, drives the 64.5% market-implied odds for second place by end of October. Strong performance across math benchmarks like FrontierMath and AIME variants, combined with DeepMind's focus on reasoning agents, supports trader consensus that Google trails only top labs such as Anthropic or OpenAI while outpacing others. Lower odds for OpenAI (12.5%) and Anthropic (7.0%) reflect their current frontier leads in several leaderboards, whereas smaller shares for Moonshot, Z.ai, and Alibaba highlight competitive but less consistent math results. Upcoming Gemini iterations and potential Text Arena leaderboard refreshes through October remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$20,354Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent Gemini 3.7 Flash update, which lifted its Text Arena math ranking to fourth with notable gains in instruction following and multi-turn tasks, drives the 64.5% market-implied odds for second place by end of October. Strong performance across math benchmarks like FrontierMath and AIME variants, combined with DeepMind's focus on reasoning agents, supports trader consensus that Google trails only top labs such as Anthropic or OpenAI while outpacing others. Lower odds for OpenAI (12.5%) and Anthropic (7.0%) reflect their current frontier leads in several leaderboards, whereas smaller shares for Moonshot, Z.ai, and Alibaba highlight competitive but less consistent math results. Upcoming Gemini iterations and potential Text Arena leaderboard refreshes through October remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,354Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's recent Gemini 3.7 Flash update, which lifted its Text Arena math ranking to fourth with notable gains in instruction following and multi-turn tasks, drives the 64.5% market-implied odds for second place by end of October. Strong performance across math benchmarks like FrontierMath and AIME variants, combined with DeepMind's focus on reasoning agents, supports trader consensus that Google trails only top labs such as Anthropic or OpenAI while outpacing others. Lower odds for OpenAI (12.5%) and Anthropic (7.0%) reflect their current frontier leads in several leaderboards, whereas smaller shares for Moonshot, Z.ai, and Alibaba highlight competitive but less consistent math results. Upcoming Gemini iterations and potential Text Arena leaderboard refreshes through October remain key swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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