Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossing under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with an implied 91.5% probability, driven by its confirmed second-weekend drop to $69 million—a 47% decline from the $131.7 million three-day opening amid Easter family turnout. This trajectory echoes the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's legs, where third-frame declines hit 46%, compounded by steady competition from Project Hail Mary surpassing $500 million globally and waning post-holiday momentum. Strong critical reception and A-level word-of-mouth provide some multiplier potential, but absent viral repeat viewings or light counterprogramming, upside remains slim; tracking updates Thursday could signal any upset shift toward $44-48 million.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3e box-office du week-end
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3e box-office du week-end
<44M 92%
44-48m 6.8%
>52 M 2.1%
48-52M$ 1.6%
$14,327 Vol.
$14,327 Vol.
<44M
92%
44-48m
7%
48-52M$
2%
>52 M
2%
<44M 92%
44-48m 6.8%
>52 M 2.1%
48-52M$ 1.6%
$14,327 Vol.
$14,327 Vol.
<44M
92%
44-48m
7%
48-52M$
2%
>52 M
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossing under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with an implied 91.5% probability, driven by its confirmed second-weekend drop to $69 million—a 47% decline from the $131.7 million three-day opening amid Easter family turnout. This trajectory echoes the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's legs, where third-frame declines hit 46%, compounded by steady competition from Project Hail Mary surpassing $500 million globally and waning post-holiday momentum. Strong critical reception and A-level word-of-mouth provide some multiplier potential, but absent viral repeat viewings or light counterprogramming, upside remains slim; tracking updates Thursday could signal any upset shift toward $44-48 million.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes