Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour39.0–39.4 100.0%
<38.0 <1%
38.0–38.4 <1%
38.5–38.9 <1%
$34,561 Vol.
$34,561 Vol.
1 mai 2026
<38.0
No
38.0–38.4
No
38.5–38.9
No
39.0–39.4
Yes
39.5–39.9
No
40.0+
No
39.0–39.4 100.0%
<38.0 <1%
38.0–38.4 <1%
38.5–38.9 <1%
$34,561 Vol.
$34,561 Vol.
1 mai 2026
<38.0
$3,118 Vol.
No
38.0–38.4
$2,897 Vol.
No
38.5–38.9
$4,183 Vol.
No
39.0–39.4
$10,949 Vol.
Yes
39.5–39.9
$6,975 Vol.
No
40.0+
$6,438 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Volume
$34,561Date de fin
1 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$34,561Date de fin
1 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes