**Modest early-September activity and limited tropical cyclone influence have anchored trader sentiment near the 25-49 tornado bin (49.0% implied probability), with the adjacent 75-124 range (48.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final National Weather Service surveys and any late-month development.** As of mid-September 2026, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28 confirmed tornadoes through September 13, well below the long-term September average of roughly 66. Sporadic events between September 4–14 produced 29 local storm reports and about 10 surveyed paths, driven by isolated supercells rather than widespread outbreaks or landfalling tropical systems. September climatology favors weaker mid-latitude systems or remnant tropical moisture for tornadogenesis; the absence of strong Gulf or Atlantic landfalls this year has kept totals low. With only days remaining in the month, model guidance shows limited severe potential, though preliminary reports can rise after damage surveys conclude. Traders weigh these factors against historical variability in final counts when assessing the closely contested lower versus mid-range bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTornades américaines de septembre 2026
Tornades américaines de septembre 2026
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
50 - 74 37%
Moins de 25 3.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
3%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
37%
75 - 124
47%
125 ou plus
3%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
50 - 74 37%
Moins de 25 3.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
49%
50 - 74
$35 Vol.
37%
75 - 124
$89 Vol.
47%
125 ou plus
$50 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Modest early-September activity and limited tropical cyclone influence have anchored trader sentiment near the 25-49 tornado bin (49.0% implied probability), with the adjacent 75-124 range (48.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final National Weather Service surveys and any late-month development.**
As of mid-September 2026, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28 confirmed tornadoes through September 13, well below the long-term September average of roughly 66. Sporadic events between September 4–14 produced 29 local storm reports and about 10 surveyed paths, driven by isolated supercells rather than widespread outbreaks or landfalling tropical systems. September climatology favors weaker mid-latitude systems or remnant tropical moisture for tornadogenesis; the absence of strong Gulf or Atlantic landfalls this year has kept totals low. With only days remaining in the month, model guidance shows limited severe potential, though preliminary reports can rise after damage surveys conclude. Traders weigh these factors against historical variability in final counts when assessing the closely contested lower versus mid-range bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$224Date de fin
14 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Modest early-September activity and limited tropical cyclone influence have anchored trader sentiment near the 25-49 tornado bin (49.0% implied probability), with the adjacent 75-124 range (48.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final National Weather Service surveys and any late-month development.**
As of mid-September 2026, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28 confirmed tornadoes through September 13, well below the long-term September average of roughly 66. Sporadic events between September 4–14 produced 29 local storm reports and about 10 surveyed paths, driven by isolated supercells rather than widespread outbreaks or landfalling tropical systems. September climatology favors weaker mid-latitude systems or remnant tropical moisture for tornadogenesis; the absence of strong Gulf or Atlantic landfalls this year has kept totals low. With only days remaining in the month, model guidance shows limited severe potential, though preliminary reports can rise after damage surveys conclude. Traders weigh these factors against historical variability in final counts when assessing the closely contested lower versus mid-range bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$224Date de fin
14 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47de9d...**Modest early-September activity and limited tropical cyclone influence have anchored trader sentiment near the 25-49 tornado bin (49.0% implied probability), with the adjacent 75-124 range (48.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final National Weather Service surveys and any late-month development.** As of mid-September 2026, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28 confirmed tornadoes through September 13, well below the long-term September average of roughly 66. Sporadic events between September 4–14 produced 29 local storm reports and about 10 surveyed paths, driven by isolated supercells rather than widespread outbreaks or landfalling tropical systems. September climatology favors weaker mid-latitude systems or remnant tropical moisture for tornadogenesis; the absence of strong Gulf or Atlantic landfalls this year has kept totals low. With only days remaining in the month, model guidance shows limited severe potential, though preliminary reports can rise after damage surveys conclude. Traders weigh these factors against historical variability in final counts when assessing the closely contested lower versus mid-range bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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