Anthropic's confidential SEC filing on June 1 for its draft S-1 registration statement has established it as the frontrunner, supporting the 71% market-implied probability it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move followed recent private funding at a $965 billion valuation and positions Anthropic for a potential fall 2026 debut once regulators complete their review, depending on market conditions. OpenAI, valued near $850 billion to $1 trillion, continues preparatory work with bankers but has yet to file, amid reports of internal timeline debates and a target possibly slipping beyond September. Traders are watching for OpenAI's filing announcement and any shifts in IPO window receptivity as key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic
$131,760 Vol.
$131,760 Vol.
Anthropic
$131,760 Vol.
$131,760 Vol.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's confidential SEC filing on June 1 for its draft S-1 registration statement has established it as the frontrunner, supporting the 71% market-implied probability it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move followed recent private funding at a $965 billion valuation and positions Anthropic for a potential fall 2026 debut once regulators complete their review, depending on market conditions. OpenAI, valued near $850 billion to $1 trillion, continues preparatory work with bankers but has yet to file, amid reports of internal timeline debates and a target possibly slipping beyond September. Traders are watching for OpenAI's filing announcement and any shifts in IPO window receptivity as key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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