Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a public prospectus in late September and marketing in mid-October, has established it as the frontrunner for a 2026 listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has not translated into comparable momentum; reports indicate the company is leaning toward a 2027 debut to achieve its $1 trillion valuation target amid market volatility after the SpaceX IPO and heavy infrastructure spending commitments. This sequencing gap, reinforced by statements from OpenAI’s CFO and leadership expectations that Anthropic will price first, underpins the market’s 96.4 percent implied probability for Anthropic. Remaining variables include regulatory review timelines, completion of Anthropic’s $15 billion credit facility, or shifts in public-market conditions that could compress or extend either window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic
96% chance
$338,517 Vol.
$338,517 Vol.
30 déc. 2027
Anthropic
96% chance
$338,517 Vol.
$338,517 Vol.
30 déc. 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a public prospectus in late September and marketing in mid-October, has established it as the frontrunner for a 2026 listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has not translated into comparable momentum; reports indicate the company is leaning toward a 2027 debut to achieve its $1 trillion valuation target amid market volatility after the SpaceX IPO and heavy infrastructure spending commitments. This sequencing gap, reinforced by statements from OpenAI’s CFO and leadership expectations that Anthropic will price first, underpins the market’s 96.4 percent implied probability for Anthropic. Remaining variables include regulatory review timelines, completion of Anthropic’s $15 billion credit facility, or shifts in public-market conditions that could compress or extend either window.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$338,517Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a public prospectus in late September and marketing in mid-October, has established it as the frontrunner for a 2026 listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has not translated into comparable momentum; reports indicate the company is leaning toward a 2027 debut to achieve its $1 trillion valuation target amid market volatility after the SpaceX IPO and heavy infrastructure spending commitments. This sequencing gap, reinforced by statements from OpenAI’s CFO and leadership expectations that Anthropic will price first, underpins the market’s 96.4 percent implied probability for Anthropic. Remaining variables include regulatory review timelines, completion of Anthropic’s $15 billion credit facility, or shifts in public-market conditions that could compress or extend either window.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$338,517Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a public prospectus in late September and marketing in mid-October, has established it as the frontrunner for a 2026 listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has not translated into comparable momentum; reports indicate the company is leaning toward a 2027 debut to achieve its $1 trillion valuation target amid market volatility after the SpaceX IPO and heavy infrastructure spending commitments. This sequencing gap, reinforced by statements from OpenAI’s CFO and leadership expectations that Anthropic will price first, underpins the market’s 96.4 percent implied probability for Anthropic. Remaining variables include regulatory review timelines, completion of Anthropic’s $15 billion credit facility, or shifts in public-market conditions that could compress or extend either window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
L'introduction en bourse d'Anthropic aura-t-elle lieu en octobre 2026 (ET) ?
59%
Oui
Anthropic ou OpenAI : laquelle aura une capitalisation boursière plus élevée lors de la clôture de son introduction en bourse ?
68%
Anthropic
La capitalisation boursière d’Anthropic atteindra-t-elle 600 milliards de dollars ou plus à la clôture du marché le jour de son introduction en bourse d’ici le 31 décembre 2027 ?
96%
Oui
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