Anthropic's Claude large language model faces trader-implied odds split closely between 37.5% for 12+ downtime days in May and 35% for 9-11, reflecting consensus on persistent reliability challenges amid explosive growth. March 2026 saw at least five major outages—including elevated errors on March 23 and 26-27 affecting Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6—tied to 14+ rapid updates and capacity limits from chasing OpenAI's revenue dominance, per status.claude.com and user reports. This aggressive iteration, prioritizing AI capabilities over stability, differentiates Anthropic from rivals' more mature infrastructure, but strains during peak loads remain a swing factor as May nears without announced scaling fixes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour12+ 37%
9-11 35%
6-8 25%
3-5 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 mai 2026
0-2
16%
3-5
20%
6-8
25%
9-11
35%
12+
37%
12+ 37%
9-11 35%
6-8 25%
3-5 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 mai 2026
0-2
$17 Vol.
16%
3-5
$0 Vol.
20%
6-8
$0 Vol.
25%
9-11
$0 Vol.
35%
12+
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude large language model faces trader-implied odds split closely between 37.5% for 12+ downtime days in May and 35% for 9-11, reflecting consensus on persistent reliability challenges amid explosive growth. March 2026 saw at least five major outages—including elevated errors on March 23 and 26-27 affecting Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6—tied to 14+ rapid updates and capacity limits from chasing OpenAI's revenue dominance, per status.claude.com and user reports. This aggressive iteration, prioritizing AI capabilities over stability, differentiates Anthropic from rivals' more mature infrastructure, but strains during peak loads remain a swing factor as May nears without announced scaling fixes.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Marché ouvert : Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$17Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude large language model faces trader-implied odds split closely between 37.5% for 12+ downtime days in May and 35% for 9-11, reflecting consensus on persistent reliability challenges amid explosive growth. March 2026 saw at least five major outages—including elevated errors on March 23 and 26-27 affecting Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6—tied to 14+ rapid updates and capacity limits from chasing OpenAI's revenue dominance, per status.claude.com and user reports. This aggressive iteration, prioritizing AI capabilities over stability, differentiates Anthropic from rivals' more mature infrastructure, but strains during peak loads remain a swing factor as May nears without announced scaling fixes.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$17Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude large language model faces trader-implied odds split closely between 37.5% for 12+ downtime days in May and 35% for 9-11, reflecting consensus on persistent reliability challenges amid explosive growth. March 2026 saw at least five major outages—including elevated errors on March 23 and 26-27 affecting Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6—tied to 14+ rapid updates and capacity limits from chasing OpenAI's revenue dominance, per status.claude.com and user reports. This aggressive iteration, prioritizing AI capabilities over stability, differentiates Anthropic from rivals' more mature infrastructure, but strains during peak loads remain a swing factor as May nears without announced scaling fixes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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