Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has stated that placing all weapons under state control, including Hezbollah’s arsenal, is non-negotiable and must occur through dialogue rather than force to avoid civil conflict. A June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework ties phased Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to verified Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah disarmament in pilot zones south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah leaders have rejected the linkage as unacceptable and warned of internal strife. The LAF reports operational control and weapons seizures in initial areas, though Israeli assessments question coordination and effectiveness. October talks in Rome and ongoing Israeli strikes remain key variables that could influence the pace of any state monopoly on arms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
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