**Macron is unlikely to call a referendum by December 31, 2026, as recent developments show him advancing major reforms through parliament and revised legislation rather than direct popular votes.** His second term ends in 2027, with the presidential election scheduled for April and May, shifting focus to legacy measures and transition. The assisted dying law, a flagship promise, passed parliament in July 2026 and was signed into law in August after Constitutional Council approval, without a referendum. Earlier council rulings rejected referendum routes for ethical issues like end-of-life policy. Following the council's August 14 strike-down of the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill targeting spring 2027 implementation, bypassing referendum calls from figures like Gabriel Attal. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and Macron has consistently favored legislative or executive channels amid parliamentary fragmentation. No official announcements or procedural steps point to a vote by year-end, reinforcing trader consensus on the low probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Macron is unlikely to call a referendum by December 31, 2026, as recent developments show him advancing major reforms through parliament and revised legislation rather than direct popular votes.**
His second term ends in 2027, with the presidential election scheduled for April and May, shifting focus to legacy measures and transition. The assisted dying law, a flagship promise, passed parliament in July 2026 and was signed into law in August after Constitutional Council approval, without a referendum. Earlier council rulings rejected referendum routes for ethical issues like end-of-life policy.
Following the council's August 14 strike-down of the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill targeting spring 2027 implementation, bypassing referendum calls from figures like Gabriel Attal. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and Macron has consistently favored legislative or executive channels amid parliamentary fragmentation. No official announcements or procedural steps point to a vote by year-end, reinforcing trader consensus on the low probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Macron is unlikely to call a referendum by December 31, 2026, as recent developments show him advancing major reforms through parliament and revised legislation rather than direct popular votes.**
His second term ends in 2027, with the presidential election scheduled for April and May, shifting focus to legacy measures and transition. The assisted dying law, a flagship promise, passed parliament in July 2026 and was signed into law in August after Constitutional Council approval, without a referendum. Earlier council rulings rejected referendum routes for ethical issues like end-of-life policy.
Following the council's August 14 strike-down of the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill targeting spring 2027 implementation, bypassing referendum calls from figures like Gabriel Attal. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and Macron has consistently favored legislative or executive channels amid parliamentary fragmentation. No official announcements or procedural steps point to a vote by year-end, reinforcing trader consensus on the low probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Macron is unlikely to call a referendum by December 31, 2026, as recent developments show him advancing major reforms through parliament and revised legislation rather than direct popular votes.** His second term ends in 2027, with the presidential election scheduled for April and May, shifting focus to legacy measures and transition. The assisted dying law, a flagship promise, passed parliament in July 2026 and was signed into law in August after Constitutional Council approval, without a referendum. Earlier council rulings rejected referendum routes for ethical issues like end-of-life policy. Following the council's August 14 strike-down of the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill targeting spring 2027 implementation, bypassing referendum calls from figures like Gabriel Attal. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and Macron has consistently favored legislative or executive channels amid parliamentary fragmentation. No official announcements or procedural steps point to a vote by year-end, reinforcing trader consensus on the low probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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