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Politique·Élections Municipales

Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Market icon
Politique·Élections Municipales

Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

65% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
65% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$12
Date de fin
7 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$12
Date de fin
7 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 65% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 65¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 65% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? » est de 65% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 65% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.