Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.