Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges have centered on precision airstrikes and missile responses rather than ground operations. Following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in early July 2026, U.S. forces conducted repeated strikes on Iranian assets through late July, with administration statements emphasizing accountability for maritime threats and nuclear-related limits over territorial control. A June memorandum of understanding and ongoing mediation efforts have prioritized sanctions relief, ballistic missile constraints, and de-escalation channels, while U.S. officials have signaled preference for targeted pressure amid high operational costs and regional risks. These patterns align with trader consensus pricing a 75.5% probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.