Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, which began with airstrikes in February 2026 and escalated into a war of attrition involving missile exchanges, naval blockades, and sanctions, have remained limited to air, missile, and maritime operations without ground troop commitments. Recent September 2026 strikes targeted IRGC sites and shipping threats in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. officials and military analyses highlight munitions constraints, high costs exceeding $38 billion, and risks of a large-scale invasion against Iran's substantial ground forces. Diplomatic channels via Qatar and direct statements from President Trump signal ongoing talks and conditions for de-escalation, with experts assessing full invasion as improbable before 2027 given the preference for targeted pressure and negotiation over occupation. Trader consensus at 84.5% on "No" reflects these barriers and the conflict's current trajectory.