Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and ongoing indirect talks in Doha focused on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear constraints, has shifted emphasis from military confrontation to negotiated de-escalation. Following February 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire, U.S. actions have centered on air and naval operations rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control, consistent with the market's definition of invasion. Trader consensus at 79.5% for No reflects these diplomatic channels and logistical barriers to a large-scale offensive before December 2026, though renewed ship attacks or stalled talks could alter probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
Oui
$54,777,509 Vol.
$54,777,509 Vol.
Oui
$54,777,509 Vol.
$54,777,509 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and ongoing indirect talks in Doha focused on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear constraints, has shifted emphasis from military confrontation to negotiated de-escalation. Following February 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire, U.S. actions have centered on air and naval operations rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control, consistent with the market's definition of invasion. Trader consensus at 79.5% for No reflects these diplomatic channels and logistical barriers to a large-scale offensive before December 2026, though renewed ship attacks or stalled talks could alter probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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