US strategy toward Iran has centered on sustained airstrikes, naval pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic sanctions rather than large-scale ground operations, following the February 2026 onset of direct conflict and subsequent June memorandum of understanding. Recent September 2026 US strikes targeted IRGC assets in southern Iran amid shipping incidents, yet officials and analysts continue to describe any full invasion as extraordinarily risky given terrain, Iranian ground forces, and the roughly 50,000 US troops already deployed regionally. Ongoing diplomatic channels, midterm election pressures, and congressional limits on escalation reinforce trader expectations that a ground campaign will not occur before 2027, even as the broader confrontation persists.