Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability, as no frontier AI model has surpassed 50% on Epoch AI's challenging FrontierMath benchmark—GPT-5.4 Pro's March 2026 record of 47.6-50% on Tiers 1-3 and 38% on Tier 4 remains the peak, despite doubling prior scores like o3's low teens. This reflects the benchmark's design for research-level math problems demanding novel proofs and insights unsolved by human experts, resisting saturation even with advanced chain-of-thought reasoning and agentic tools. Recent evals, including Meta's Muse Spark at 39% on easier tiers (April 8), show incremental gains amid fierce competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind. Key catalysts include upcoming next-gen releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5 by year-end, with Epoch-verified scores pivotal for any sentiment shift before December 31, 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$47,296 वॉल्यूम
$47,296 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
$47,296 वॉल्यूम
$47,296 वॉल्यूम
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability, as no frontier AI model has surpassed 50% on Epoch AI's challenging FrontierMath benchmark—GPT-5.4 Pro's March 2026 record of 47.6-50% on Tiers 1-3 and 38% on Tier 4 remains the peak, despite doubling prior scores like o3's low teens. This reflects the benchmark's design for research-level math problems demanding novel proofs and insights unsolved by human experts, resisting saturation even with advanced chain-of-thought reasoning and agentic tools. Recent evals, including Meta's Muse Spark at 39% on easier tiers (April 8), show incremental gains amid fierce competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind. Key catalysts include upcoming next-gen releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5 by year-end, with Epoch-verified scores pivotal for any sentiment shift before December 31, 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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