Mary Peltola leads trader odds in the 2026 Alaska Senate race following her strong performance in the August nonpartisan primary, where she captured 49.5% to advance alongside incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. The contest, rated a toss-up by major forecasters, features ranked-choice voting and a four-candidate general-election ballot that includes additional Republicans Daniel J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes. A mid-September Rasmussen survey showed Peltola and Sullivan tied at 39% among likely voters, with the minor candidates drawing 13% combined. Traders appear to weigh Peltola’s crossover appeal and primary momentum against Sullivan’s incumbency advantages and potential second-choice transfers under RCV, producing a market consensus that diverges from polling aggregates near parity. No major late developments have shifted the race since the primary.