Mary Peltola leads trader consensus at 62% in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 38.5%, reflecting consistent Alaska Survey Research polling that shows her ahead by 3–7 points in head-to-head matchups under the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system. Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the contest against the Republican seeking a third term elevated the race’s profile nationally, with her prior statewide wins and strong fundraising providing key advantages. A same-name Republican challenger filing sparked brief investigations and accusations of voter confusion tactics ahead of the August primary, but state officials ruled the duplicate ineligible on June 15. Sullivan maintains Trump’s endorsement in a Republican-leaning state, while minor candidates trail at negligible shares.