Mary Peltola holds a 62% trader-implied probability in the 2026 Alaska Senate race against incumbent Dan Sullivan at 38.5%, driven by consistent Alaska Survey Research polling showing her ahead by 3–7 points in head-to-head matchups under the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system. Peltola’s January 2026 entry against the Republican seeking a third term elevated the contest’s national profile, bolstered by her prior statewide wins, strong fundraising, and crossover appeal in a state that has trended less Republican in recent cycles. The June 15 ruling disqualifying a same-name Republican primary challenger removed a potential source of voter confusion ahead of the August 18 primary. Sullivan retains Trump’s endorsement in a Republican-leaning electorate, while minor candidates remain negligible.