Mary Peltola leads trader consensus in the 2026 Alaska Senate race at 62% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 38.5%, reflecting recent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 3–6 points in head-to-head matchups under the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system. Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the contest against the Republican seeking a third term has elevated the race’s profile nationally, with consistent polling leads tied to her prior statewide wins and strong fundraising. A recent same-name Republican challenger filing has sparked investigations and accusations of voter confusion tactics ahead of the August primary, while Sullivan maintains Trump’s endorsement in a state with a Republican lean. Minor candidates trail at negligible shares amid focus on the two frontrunners.