Mary Peltola leads trader consensus at 62% in the 2026 Alaska Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 3–7 points over incumbent Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups under the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system. Peltola’s January 2026 entry as the former U.S. representative with prior statewide wins and strong fundraising elevated the contest’s national profile against the Republican seeking a third term. Sullivan retains Trump’s endorsement in a Republican-leaning state. A same-name Republican challenger filing triggered brief investigations into alleged voter confusion tactics ahead of the August primary, but state officials ruled the duplicate ineligible on June 15. Minor candidates remain at negligible shares.